Grain futures mixed, wheat declines for a seventh straight week

Grain futures were mixed on Friday, with wheat capping a seventh weekly decline, the longest losing streak in more than two years amid expectations for record global output. Corn also lost ground, while soybeans advanced. Meanwhile, the Chicago Board of Trade remained closed on Monday, due to a national holiday.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for settlement in March declined 1.84% to settle at $5.6288 per bushel on Friday. Prices jumped to a session high of $5.7962, while day’s bottom was touched at $5.6288 per bushel. On January 10th, prices touched $5.6088 per bushel, the weakest level since July 2010.

Wheat settled the week 0.9% lower, which was a seventh weekly decline, the longest losing streak since October 2011. The grain continued last years downward trend, when it slumped 22%, marking the largest annual decline since 2008, on expectations for a record global output of 712.7 million tons, according to data by the US Department of Agriculture.

Weather forecasts called for mainly favorable conditions in the Midwest, with only limited possibility of damaging cold in the Southern and Central Plains. DTN reported on January 17th that very cold conditions are expected in the Midwest early next week, but not cold enough to harm soft red winter wheat. However, according to the website, a secondary surge next weekend seems more threatening. Strong winds with possibilities of winter storms may develop over the Western Midwest and Northern Plains.

Meanwhile, no damaging cold weather is indicated in the Central and Southern Plains for at least the next week. Long-term weather forecasts are still struggling to predict if the next Arctic blast will bypass the winter wheat areas, but it bears close watching.

Elsewhere on the grains market, corn futures for March delivery lost 0.65% to settle at $4.2463 a bushel on Friday. Futures held in a range between day’s high and low of $4.2788 and $4.2238 per bushel. On January 10th prices touched $4.0638 per bushel, the lowest since August 2010.

The grain settled the week 1.7% lower after it lost nearly 40% in 2013, the steepest annual drop on record amid expectations the global output will surge to 964.3 million tons in 2013-2014 season, boosted by record production in the US, the world’s top producer.

Soybeans advance

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in March advanced 0.15% to settle at $13.1663 per bushel on Friday. Prices touched a session high at $13.1838 per bushel, while day’s low stood at $13.0562 per bushel. On January 16th prices touched $13.2988 per bushel, the strongest level since December 27th. However, the oilseed settled last year 8.5% lower.

Soybeans prices were supported after weather forecasting models called for potentially harmful conditions across Brazil and Argentina.

DTN’s January 17th forecast called for very hot and dry conditions to remain in place across main corn and soybeans areas in Argentina for at least 4-5 days. According to the website, the heat will be extremely stressful, especially for corn, which is pollinating at the moment. Moreover, the heat will reduce the soil moisture for developing corn and soybeans that are not yet in reproduction phase. There is a slight chance for showers and lower temperatures next week, but the weather pattern is still uncertain.

Conditions remain favorable for developing soybeans in the Brazilian producing regions, Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso. However, a period of hot weather is expected in Rio Grande do Sul, which will most likely be stressful for developing crops, especially soybeans.