Grain futures mixed, wheat poised for the biggest monthly increase since July 2012

Grain futures were mixed on Thursday, wheat declined, but headed for the largest monthly increase in 1-1/2 years as the recent adverse weather conditions in the US, the biggest global exporter, were seen harming crops. Meanwhile, corn declined, while soybeans touched a 6-month high amid recent drought in Brazil, the second-largest exporter of the grain.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for settlement in May lost 1.44% to trade at $5.9650 per bushel by 13:27 GMT. Prices touched a session high of $6.0688 per bushel, while day’s bottom was touched at $5.9562 a bushel.

However, the grain headed for a 7.5% advance this month, which would be the largest increase since July 2012, after plunging 8.3% in January and 9.5% in December, on expectations for a record global output of 712.7 million tons, according to data by the US Department of Agriculture.

Wheat prices were pressured after adverse weather conditions in the US, the worlds biggest exporter, were seen damaging crops in the US Midwest and the Southern Plains.

On February 18, the Texas Department of Agriculture reported that nearly 44% of Texas winter wheat was in poor or very poor condition as of the week ended February 16, up from 41% in the previous week.

DTN’s February 26th forecast called for another round of extreme cold over the US Midwest, with temperatures from at least 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit below normal or even lower. The soft red winter wheat is under freezing threat as the recent warm conditions have melted some of the protective snow cover.

Meanwhile, a return to colder weather is also expected over the Southern Plains during the week. According to the website temperatures wont be low enough to harm winter wheat, but dryness in the western areas continues to be of major concern. Topsoil moisture in the Texas Panhandle area is rated generally 80% short to very short.

Elsewhere on the grains market, corn futures for May delivery fell by 0.7% to trade at $4.5738 a bushel by 13:30 GMT. Futures hit a session high at $4.6000 per bushel, while day’s low was touched at $4.5712 per bushel. Yesterday, prices touched $4.6462 per bushel, the strongest since September 17. Corn has advanced 8.5% this year after it lost nearly 40% in 2013, the steepest annual drop on record and the worst annual performance since at least 1959.

Soybeans touch 6-month high

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in May, added 0.45% to trade at $14.0263 per bushel by 13:28 GMT. Prices touched a session high at $14.0588 per bushel, the strongest since September 3, while day’s low was hit at $13.9175 per bushel. The grain settled last week 2.5% higher, after adding 0.5% in the previous 5-day period. However, the oilseed has lost 8.5% in 2013.

According to a report by Oil World, a Hamburg-based researcher, harvest in Brazil, the second largest exporter of soybeans, will be 85 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season, down from 89.5 million tons estimated in January.

Brazil’s soybeans crops have been curbed by a recent drought in the country, but weather forecasts called for an end of the dry period, which will relieve some stress on developing crops.

DTN.com reported on February 26th that rain and heavy thunderstorms in Brazil will maintain adequate to surplus soil moisture for filling summer crops. The heavy rain will probably delay fieldwork, as some local flooding may occur. Somewhat less showers in the northern growing areas will be beneficial for early harvesting of corn and soybeans crops and planting second crop corn.

Meanwhile, a dry weather trend is expected in central Argentina during the next week. The warmer temperatures will be beneficial for developing crops, after recent heavy rainfall. The cool weather early this week will be followed by warmer weather trend at the end of the week.