Grain futures advance, soybeans rise as USDA reduces global production forecast

Grain futures advanced on Tuesday, soybeans rose after the US Department of Agriculture lowered its global output forecast yesterday.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans futures for settlement in May, rose 0.45% to trade at $14.2538 per bushel by 15:37 GMT. Futures touched a session high at $14.2862 per bushel, while day’s low was hit at $14.1088 per bushel. On March 7th, prices touched $14.5962 per bushel, the strongest since July 24th.

The grain settled last week 3.2% higher, after adding 3.1% in the previous 5-day period. However, the oilseed has lost 8.5% in 2013.

The US Department of Agriculture released its latest estimates yesterday, which showed global soybeans output will decline to 285.43 million metric tons from 287.69 million tons estimated in February. At the same time, the government agency also reduced its forecast for output in Brazil, the biggest shipper, to 88.5 million metric tons from 90 million reported in February.

Corn edges higher

On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery surged by 0.73% to trade at $4.8113 a bushel by 15:37 GMT. Futures hit a session high at $4.8188 per bushel, while day’s low was touched at $4.7362 per bushel. On March 7th, corn futures touched $5.0238 per bushel, the strongest since August 27 and capped a 5.3% weekly gain, the biggest advance since the period ended May 31.

Corn has surged 14% this year after the escalating tension between Ukraine and the Russian Federation threatened to disrupt shipments from the Black Sea region. The grain plunged nearly 40% in 2013, the steepest annual drop on record and the worst annual performance since at least 1959.

DTN.com reported on March 11th that soil moisture for second crop corn and late-filling early soybeans and corn in central Brazil is adequate to surplus at the moment. During the week, rainfall is expected to increase somewhat, favoring late-filling crops, but harming early harvests and early maturing crops.

Meanwhile, the website reported that conditions in central Argentina continue to be mostly favorable for filling and maturing corn and soybeans at this time. Scattered thundershowers are expected later this week, recharging soil moisture, but also being unfavorable for early-maturing crops.

Wheat up as well

On the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat futures for settlement in May rose by 1.51% to trade at $6.5088 per bushel by 15:39 GMT. Prices touched a session high of $6.5412 per bushel, while day’s bottom was touched at $6.3712 a bushel. On March 7, wheat futures hit $6.6288 per bushel, the highest since December 3rd.

Wheat settled 8.2% up in February, after plunging 8.3% in January and 9.5% in December, on expectations for a record global output of 712.7 million tons.

According to data by the International Grains Council (IGC), Ukraine will be the sixth-largest global wheat exporter, as it is forecast to ship 9.5 million metric tons of the grain in the 2013-14 season through June, up from 7.1 million tons a year ago.

DTN’s March 11th forecast called for below-normal temperatures over the Midwest during the next 7-to-10 days, hindering the soil warming for spring field work, with possible new round of snow in the northern and eastern areas. According to the website, temperatures wont be low enough to harm the soft red winter wheat crop.

Meanwhile, limited rainfall is expected across the dry areas of the southwestern Plains during the next 10 days. Concern over crops started to increase as the spring season is nearing and for now, there are no signs of improving amounts of rainfall. The website reported that the southeast areas may experience shower threats, which will help maintain beneficial conditions for wheat in these areas.