Forex Market: EUR/USD trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3863-1.3905 and closed at 1.3885.

Fundamental view

Industrial production in the euro zone probably rose 0.2% in February from the previous month, according to the median analyst estimate. In January, industrial output unexpectedly declined 0.1%. Industrial production is an indicator of the business cycle that shows the activity and development in the industry as a whole, by measuring the change in volume for a certain period of time. Information on industrial production is raised through special studies for EU members, which are called Prodcom. They cover between 5000 and 6000 products. The index measures the percentage change from the previous month.

A larger than expected increase in the industrial output would heighten the appeal of the euro. The official report is due out at 09:00 GMT on Monday.

Meanwhile, retail sales in the United States probably increased 0.8% in March on a monthly basis, according to the median forecast by experts. In February sales rose 0.3%. The report on retail sales reflects the dollar value of merchandise sold within the retail trade by taking a sampling of companies, operating in the sector of selling physical end products to consumers. The retail sales report encompasses both fixed point-of-sale businesses and non-store retailers, such as mail catalogs and vending machines. US Census Bureau, which is a part of the Department of Commerce surveys about 5 000 companies of all sizes, from huge retailers such as Wal-Mart to independent small family firms.

US core retail sales (retail sales ex autos) probably rose 0.5% in March compared to a month ago, following a 0.3% increase in February. This indicator removes large ticket prices and historical seasonality of automobile sales.

The retail sales index is considered as a coincident indicator, thus, it reflects the current state of the economy. It is also considered a pre-inflationary indicator, which investors can use in order to reassess the probability of an interest rate hike or cut by the Federal Reserve Bank. In addition, this indicator provides key information regarding consumer spending trends. Consumer expenditures, on the other hand, account for almost two-thirds of nation’s total Gross Domestic Product. Therefore, a larger than expected increase in sales would heighten the appeal of US dollar. The official report is due out at 12:30 GMT on Monday.

Technical view

On Monday, according to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3906, it will probably continue up to test 1.3926. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3948.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3864, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3842. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3822.