Forex Market: USD/BGN daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/BGN traded within the range of 1.4122-1.4169 and closed at 1.4148.

At 11:07 GMT today USD/BGN was losing 0.28% for the day to trade at 1.4117. The pair breached the first key support and touched a daily low at 1.4107 at 9:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

US weekly report on jobless claims

Initial jobless claims in the United States probably rose to 315 000 in the week ended April 12th, from 300 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts. The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. Initial application or (Initial Claim) means a completed document from an unemployed person before the local government, which is considered a claim for compensation or the possibility of compensation. The completion of the initial claim marks the beginning of a period in which the applicant receives unemployment benefits. The survey covers the number of applications registered in the previous week and is an important indicator concerning the health of the US labor market.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims rose less than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index

The Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index probably rose to 10.0 in April from 9.0 in the previous month, indicating improving activity in the manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

The index is a monthly business survey, measuring the manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants indicate the direction of the business changes in overall economic activity and different indicators for the activities in their company: employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price. The survey is conducted every month from May 1968 onwards. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative predictions. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from its monthly survey at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten the appeal of the greenback.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/BGN manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4171, it will probably continue up to test 1.4193. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4218.

If USD/BGN manages to breach the first key support at 1.4124, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.4099. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.4077.