Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3785-1.3825 and closed at 1.3807.

At 6:42 GMT today EUR/USD was gaining 0.17% for the day to trade at 1.3829. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3837 at 6:07 GMT, breaching the first resistance level of 1.3826.

Fundamental view

United States

At 14:00 GMT United States’ Census Bureau is to announce the results from the Survey of Construction, regarding sales of new, privately-owned residential buildings currently authorized by a building permit or started in areas not requiring a building permit in February. New home sales in the country probably increased to 0.45 million last month from 0.44 million in February.

A higher-than-expected reading would certainly heighten greenbacks appeal.

Euro zone

The advance manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in the euro zone will probably remain unchanged at 53.0 in April, matching Marchs reading, according to the median estimate by experts. The index is based on a monthly survey, which includes carefully selected companies that are representative of the state of the private sector in the economy and track the changes in production, new orders, market share, employment and prices in the manufacturing sector. The PMI is the first economic indicator for each month, providing information on the changing economic conditions, significantly earlier than the official state statistics. It is presented as a scale from 1 to 100. Readings above 50 are connected with a positive outlook for economic growth. Conversely, values ​​below 50 indicate a less optimistic forecast. This is a preliminary value of the indicator.

The advance services PMI probably improved to 52.5 in April from 52.2 in the previous month, according to the median analyst estimate. The index is also based on a monthly survey, and shares the same characteristics with the manufacturing PMI, with the only difference that it measures economic activity in the services sector. This is a preliminary assessment of the indicator.

Markit Economics is scheduled to release an official report at 08:00 GMT. Higher-than-expected readings would provide support for the euro.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3826, it will probably continue up to test 1.3846. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3866.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3786, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3766. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3746.