Forex Market: EUR/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/USD traded within the range of 1.3805-1.3879 and closed at 1.3813.

At 7:41 GMT today EUR/USD was losing 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.3806. The pair touched a daily low at 1.3798 at 6:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Employment in United States’ private sector probably increased by 208 000 during April, following another job gain of 191 000 in the previous month. The report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is based on data, encompassing about 400 000 out of 500 000 business entities with over 24 million employees engaged in 19 major sectors of the economy in accordance with North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). It usually comes out two days before the official employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), thus, providing clues over the tendency in nation’s non-farming sector. In case employment increases more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The report is expected at 12:15 GMT.

In addition, United States’ flash (preliminary) annualized Gross Domestic Product probably expanded 1.1% during the first quarter of 2014, according to the median estimate by experts. The final GDP for Q4, announced on March 27th, was 2.6%.
This is the widest indicator for nation’s economic activity. A larger than expected increase in the GDP figure would boost demand for the US dollar. The official result is to be released at 12:30 GMT.

Euro zone

The flash (preliminary) reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone probably rose 0.8% in April, from a final reading of 0.5% in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. The final reading, which was posted in March, was the weakest since October 2009. The HICP is used to measure and compare inflation between Member States. It is used for further evaluation of inflation, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives of the European Central Bank to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. HICP is calculated based on international harmonized standards adopted by Member States. This is the percentage change compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

Eurostat is scheduled to release the official report at 09:00 GMT. A weaker-than-expected reading may prompt the ECB to ease monetary policy in order to avoid risks of deflation. However, higher-than-expected reading will probably relieve pressure on central bank’s officials and they will not need to take imminent actions.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3860, it will probably continue up to test 1.3906. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3934.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3786, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3758. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3712.