Forex Market: USD/INR trading forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session USD/INR traded within the range of 59.820-60.110 and closed at 59.860, losing 0.13% for the day and 0.28% for the week.

Fundamental view

United States

The US Federal Budget Surplus probably expanded to $114 billion in April, after a $36.9 billion deficit in the previous month.

The monthly newsletter on revenue and expenditure of the United States Government (MTS) is prepared by the Office of Financial Management at the Ministry of Finance after approval by the Assistant Secretary of the Treasury . The newsletter covers the financial activities of the Federal Government and non- budgetary activities carried out in accordance with the budget of the U.S. government , ie revenue and expenditure of funds , deficit or surplus , which means cover the deficit or surplus allocation . The main information sources include accounting data reported by federal sources , tax and regional structures of FED.

The US Department of the Treasury will publish its report at 18:00 GMT.

India

India’s annualized industrial production probably declined 1.5% in April, according to the median forecast by experts, following a 1.9% decrease in March. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case output expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the rupee. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is expected to release the official report at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/INR manages to breach the first resistance level at 60.040, it will probably continue up to test 60.220. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 60.330.

If USD/INR manages to breach the first key support at 59.750, it will probably continue to slide and test 59.640. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 59.460.