Natural gas trading outlook: futures keep losing momentum with growing supplies in the US

Natural gas futures traded lower in New York during early hours in Europe today, after backing off from near a 2-month high last week. Improving supplies in top-consumer US push down on the contract, after the cold winter diminished blue fuel stockpiles and lifted its price. Weather reports project unseasonal weather over the US, with cold over regions of the Northeast and Midwest, and heat on the West Coast.

Front month natural gas futures, due in June, lost 1.06% at the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade for $4.483 per million British thermal units at 9:48 GMT. Prices ranged from $4.463 to $4.549 per mBtu. Over the previous four sessions the contract lost 6.82% after reaching the highest price since winter on Tuesday, pressured by increasing supplies and warming weather.

The weather over the Midwest will be cooling over the next few days, with a storm system moving in from the West. The possibility of tornadoes and heavy rains is quite real for the day, before diminishing tomorrow. Down South it will be warm and humid, with some possibility of local and unimpressive thunderstorms and rains through to Friday. The Northeast will be dry and warm today, with rare local showers, before a cooling down to normal range for the rest of the week. Over the Rockies, the West Coast is set for a hot week, with the highs pushing three digit readings on Wednesday and Thursday.

The weather in New York will be nice and warm today, with temperature highs about 83-84 degrees Fahrenheit and lows at 64, 10 degrees above average. However, readings will drop 10-15 degrees over the next two days, before they normalize on Thursday and Friday, though some thunderstorms are expected then, which could lower the highs. The Boston area will be several degrees warmer than usual today, with highs in the 80s. Similar to New York, Boston will experience a severe cooling tomorrow, with temperatures dropping 15 degrees, before entering normal range later in the week. Again, thunderstorms and rains are to be expected starting Thursday. A strong thunderstorm is forecast for Chicago today, though temps of 63-80 will be significantly higher than the average for the day. Starting tomorrow readings will drop and remain several degrees below normal through the end of the week. Los Angeles is preparing for another heatwave starting today, with temperatures expected to reach as high as 89 today, before pushing triple digits on Wednesday and Thursday. Starting over the weekend, readings will lower to be normal beginning next week.

US inventories

The energy source was also pressured in the second half of last week after government data showed natural gas in storage in the US added 74 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 2nd, exceeding forecasts of a 71 bcf gain, to reach a total of 1 055 bcf. The increase is smaller than that of the previous week, which stood at 82 billion cubic feet. The slight slowdown is attributed to cooler weather over the East and a heatwave on the West Coast during the viewed period.

Inventories are still well below figures from previous years, after a harsh winter drained supplies. Currently they stand 43.0% short of last year’s reading for the regarded week, and 48.2% below the 5-year average.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case natural gas for settlement in June penetrates the first resistance level at $4.587 per million British thermal units, it will encounter next resistance at $4.642. If breached, upside movement will probably attempt to advance to $4.687 per mBtu.

If the energy source drops below its first resistance level at $4.487 per mBtu, it will see support at $4.442. If the second key support zone is breached, the power-station fuel’s downward movement may extend to $4.387 per mBtu.