Natural gas futures were little changed during early trading in Europe today. Traders will probably hold off big deals until the US Energy Information Administration reveals weekly natural gas inventories gains tomorrow. Meanwhile, weather patterns over the US project some mixed weather, with plenty of both cool and heat throughout.
Front month natural gas futures, due in July, fell by 0.06% at the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade for $4.626 per million British thermal units at 9:04 GMT. Prices ranged from $4.604 to $4.635 per mBtu, nearing late-winter levels. Yesterday the contract added 0.37%, after on Monday the blue fuel gained further 1.54%.
Last Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that natural gas supplies in the country had gained 114 billion cubic feet for the week ended May 23, exceeding expectations of a 110 bcf increase. The injection is the biggest weekly growth since June 2009, and is 21 bcf above the average gain for the week.
“We’ve had a pretty mild May and that’s raised hopes that these big storage injections will continue all summer,” said for Bloomberg Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There’s growing optimism about the supply picture.”
Inventories, however, remain 40% below the 5-year average for the week, and need to recover more than 2.5 trillion cubic feet until November, when heating demand spikes natural gas consumption. In order to fully replenish the drained stockpiles, weekly injections would need to average 90 bcf through October, 20 billion above the average gains.
In the meantime, the hot summer months ahead should bump up natgas-fueled power demand, as air conditioners are put to work. The EIA, however, expects sustained high yields and gains for stockpiles, through booming shale gas extraction.
US weather report
According to AccuWeather.com, New York is set for quite a warm day, with temperatures ranging 64-80 degrees Fahrenheit, a couple above average. Tomorrow readings will drop 10 degrees, accompanied by some rain and cloudy weather. On Friday, however, temps will start rising again, to be several degrees above average, with quite sunny weather for the weekend.
Boston will be cooler than normal today and for the following two days, with temperatures between mid 50s and mid 60s, several below average. Quite a few thunderstorms are to be expected in the area, with moderate-to-heavy rains. On Friday the skies will start clearing and readings will rise, for a very warm and sunny Saturday, before on Sunday more rain and clouds are due.
Chicago is set for a rainy day, with a strong possibility of a severe thunderstorm. Temperatures will be between 51 and 63 degrees Fahrenheit, 10 below usual. Starting tomorrow, the weather will improve, though readings will still be below average. Through to Saturday it will be mostly sunny, with temperature highs in the low 70s, before Sunday brings more thunderstorms and cool.
Over on the West Coast, Los Angeles will have normal temperatures this week, with highs in the upper 70s and lows about 60, before a slight warm up for the weekend, with readings several above average. Up North, Seattle will be quite sunny today, temps between 50 and 70. The whole week is projected to be quite similar, with plenty of sun and readings a few above average.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case natural gas for settlement in July penetrates the first resistance level at $4.663 per million British thermal units, it will encounter next resistance at $4.697. If breached, upside movement will probably attempt to advance to $4.732 per mBtu.
If the energy source drops below its first resistance level at $4.594 per mBtu, it will see support at $4.559. If the second key support zone is breached, the power-station fuel’s downward movement may extend to $4.525 per mBtu.
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