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Gold trading outlook: futures extend rally ahead of key US data tomorrow

Gold futures were slightly higher during early hours in Europe today. Investors await the retail sales report from the US, due tomorrow. Stocks continued to advance, logging the fourteenth session of gains out of the last seventeen.

Gold futures for delivery in August traded for $1 261.3 per troy ounce at 7:25 GMT on the COMEX in New York today, up 0.09%. Daily high and low stood at $1 262.8 and $1 257.9 per troy ounce, respectively. Yesterday the contract added 0.49%, reaching a 10-day high at $1 263.8 per ounce, after on Monday gold closed for a 0.11% gain.

Meanwhile, silver contracts for July stood at $19.215 per troy ounce, for a gain of 0.25%. Daily high and low were at $19.240 and $19.160 per troy ounce, respectively. Yesterday the contract gained 0.53%, reaching a two-week high, after adding 0.39% on Monday.

The key report on retail sales in the US will be revealed tomorrow. Analysts expect a preliminary reading of 0.4% monthly growth for May, after muted 0.1% increase the previous month. Retail sales are a leading indicator for consumer spending, which accounts for about 80% of US GDP.

Also tomorrow, jobless claims will be posted. Experts suggest unchanged weekly figures at 310 000 new applications for the week through June 7, and 2.6 million continuing claims for the seven days ended May 31. Later, PPI for May will be revealed on Friday, and analysts project a 0.3% gain on a monthly basis and 1.9% year-on-year.

“With U.S. equities near the peak, it would be difficult for gold to sustain any rallies,” Zhu Siquan, analyst at GF Futures Co., said for Bloomberg. “Physical demand is good but not exceptional.”

Stocks, SPDR

US stocks mostly extended gains yesterday. Dow 30 Industrial and Nasdaq 100 added, respectively, 0.02% and 0.13% for new record highs, while S&P 500 lost 0.02%, after an all-time high close the previous session. Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50, a gauge of European stocks, also scored the highest close of all time on Tuesday, after adding 0.17%. Today, by 7:22 GMT the gauge stood for a further 0.10% drop.

Meanwhile, assets at the SPDR Gold Trust – the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, remained at 787.08 for a sixth session on Tuesday. The fund has regained almost 11 tons over the last two weeks, after dropping more than 30 for the previous month, as the US economy scored improving results.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case Gold August futures on the COMEX manage to breach the first resistance level at $1 265.9, the contract will probably continue up to test $1 271.7. In case the second key resistance is broken, the precious metal will likely attempt to advance to $1 279.6.

If the contract manages to breach the first key support at $1 252.2, it will probably continue to slide and test $1 244.3. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside may extend to $1 238.5.

Meanwhile, silver futures for July will see their first resistance level at $19.285. If it is breached, the contract will meet next resistance at $19.403, and then the third level at $19.560.

Silver will find its first support point at $19.010. Should it be breached, the second level of support is estimated at $18.853 and the third at $18.735.

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