Forex Market: AUD/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9323-0.9412 and closed at 0.9400.

At 11:13 GMT AUD/USD traded at 0.9416, adding 0.11% for the day. The pair touched a daily high at 0.9432 at 8:40 GMT.

Fundamental view

The initial jobless claims in the US probably fell to 314 000 in the week ended June 14th, from 317 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims fall more than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

In addition, the Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index probably fell to 14.0 in June from 15.4 in the previous month. The index is based on a monthly business survey, measuring the manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants indicate the direction of business changes in overall economic activity and different indicators of activity in their company: employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price. The survey is conducted every month since May 1968. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative forecasts. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from its monthly survey at 14:00 GMT. A higher than expected reading will certainly provide a boost to US dollar.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9434, it will probably continue up to test 0.9467. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9523.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9345, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9289. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9256.