Forex Market: USD/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/CAD traded within the range of 1.0811-1.0837 and closed at 1.0818.

At 11:15 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.01% for the day to trade at 1.0819. The pair touched a daily high at 1.0826 at 9:10 GMT.

Fundamental view

Retail sales in Canada probably rose 0.6% in April from a month ago, when they registered an unexpected 0.1% drop , according to the median analysts’ estimate.

At the same time, retail sales excluding autos in Canada probably jumped by 0.4% in April, following a 0.1% gain in the previous month, according to the median forecast by experts.

The index presents the changes in the total value of retail sales without the cars, whose sales account for about 20% of the total. They are excluded due to their high volatility, which can significantly affect the overall trend. Data without car sales is considered to be more representative and determines the direction of development of the indicator more precisely. This is the percentage change from the previous month.

Statistics Canada will release official data at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-expected gains will certainly provide support to loonie’s demand.

In addition, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada probably jumped 2.0% in May, compared to the same period a year ago, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In April, consumer prices rose 2.0%.

At the same time, the core CPI probably advanced by 1.5% in the previous month from a year ago, after a 1.4% gain in April, according to the median forecast by experts.

The Core Consumer Price Index differs from the basic CPI measure as it doesn’t take into account the indirect taxes and eight most volatile components identified by the Bank of Canada- fruit, fruit and nuts; mortgage costs, natural gas and other fuels, oils and other lubricants, public transport, tobacco products and supplies. This is the percentage change compared to the same month a year earlier.

Statistics Canada will publish its monthly report at 12:30 GMT today. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten the loonie’s appeal.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0833, it will probably continue up to test 1.0848. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.0859.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0807, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0796. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0781.