During yesterday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9382-0.9403 and closed at 0.9392.
At 11:14 GMT AUD/USD traded at 0.9372, losing 0.22% for the day. The pair touched a daily low at 0.9360 at 9:50 GMT, breaching the two key supports.
Fundamental view
United States
Retail Sales in the US probably jumped 0.6% in June from a month ago, when they gained 0.3%.
The indicator includes the total volume of wholesale and retail sales (cash or credit) of companies, mainly specializing in the retail sector. Sales are measured net, after deduction of the costs of refinancing. They do not include taxes paid by the buyer directly to the local government or the federal budget. These calculations measure the value of the operations used mostly by stores, whose main activity is retail sales. The index excludes retail sales made by manufacturers, wholesalers, and other core businesses who operate in sectors, other than the retail sector. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.
At the same time, retail sales, excluding sales of autos or core retail sales probably rose 0.6% last month, after adding 0.1% in the prior month. Sales of autos, which comprise about 20% of total retail sales are excluded from the index, because their high volatility distorts the overall trend. Therefore, data without auto sales is considered a better indicator of the changing market trend. This is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.
Higher-than-expected readings would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The US Census Bureau will release an official report at 12:30 GMT.
In addition, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably declined to 17.0 in July from 19.28 in the preceding month that was the highest since March 2012.
The index is based on the results of the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey. It is conducted in the beginning of each month among roughly 200 executives of manufacturing companies. Participants are asked to share their opinions about different indicators for the preceding month and their 6-month forecast as well, measuring their sentiment. The result is calculated as the difference between the positive and the negative answers. Values above zero are indicative of expansion in manufacturing activity.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will publish its official report at 12:30 GMT. In case manufacturing activity in the state of New York expanded more than expected, this would boost greenback’s demand.
Technical view
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9404, it will probably continue up to test 0.9413. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9424.
If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9380, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9369. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9358.
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