Forex Market: EUR/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/CAD traded within the range of 1.4452-1.4533 and closed at 1.4464.

At 7:12 GMT today EUR/CAD was losing 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.4441. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4440 at 7:11 GMT, the pairs weakest since January 6th.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The preliminary value of the compound index of economic sentiment (ESI) for the Euro zone probably worsened to a reading of -7.5 during the current month from -7.4 in June. This survey precedes the final reading by two weeks. A larger than projected improvement in the index would provide support to the single currency.

The European Commission is due to publish an official report at 14:00 GMT.

Canada

Retail sales in Canada probably rose 0.6% in May from a month ago, when they registered a 1.1% gain, according to the median analysts’ estimate.

At the same time, retail sales excluding autos in Canada probably jumped by 0.3% in May, following a 0.7% gain in the previous month, according to the median forecast by experts.

The index presents the changes in the total value of retail sales without the cars, whose sales account for about 20% of the total. They are excluded due to their high volatility, which can significantly affect the overall trend. Data without car sales is considered to be more representative and determines the direction of development of the indicator more precisely. This is the percentage change from the previous month.

Statistics Canada will release official data at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-expected gains will certainly provide support to loonie’s demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.4514. In case EUR/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4564, it will probably continue up to test 1.4597. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4595.

If EUR/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.4433, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.4402. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.4352.