Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/SEK traded within the range of 9.1890-9.2311 and closed at 9.1937.

At 6:27 GMT today EUR/SEK was losing 0.06% for the day to trade at 9.1865. The pair touched a daily low at 9.1837 at 6:06 GMT, the pairs weakest since July 3rd.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

At 08:00 GMT, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish its IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, the largest economy in the Euro zone. The index is expected to have slightly deteriorated to 109.4 this month, from 109.7 in June.

The index is based on a monthly survey among 7,000 respondents from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Respondents give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They characterize their companies’ situation as “good”, ” satisfactory” or ” poor ” and their expectations for their business over the next six months as ” more favorable “, ” unchanged ” or ” more unfavorable ”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of respondents that answered the situation is “good” and those that assess it is “bad”, while the value of the balance for future business expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses ” more favorable ” and ” more unfavorable “.

Ifo business climate index represents the average balance of the two sub-indexes, the sub-index of current conditions and the sub-index of business expectations. The composite index uses a value of 100 points as a separator between the positive and negative forecasts. The more the result gets away from 100 points, the greater the confidence of the respondents.

A higher than expected reading will certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

Sweden

Retail Sales in Sweden probably rose 0.7% in June from a month ago, according to the median estimate by experts. In May, retail sales dropped 0.7% on a monthly basis.

The index provides data on the turnover of companies, whose main business is specialized in retailing. Since 1990 data excludes sales of motor vehicles, pharmaceuticals and beverages. Data is collected through a survey of enterprises. All businesses with a turnover of over 1 billion SEK, according to the register of VAT are included in the study. Those with turnover below 2 million SEK are not included. This is the percentage change compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

Statistics Sweden is expected to publish an official report at 7:30 GMT. In case retail sales rose more than expected, this would boost demand for the Swedish krona.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.2046. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.2202, it will probably continue up to test 9.2467. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.2623.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1781, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1625. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1360.