Forex Market: USD/UAH daily forecast

During Friday’s trading session USD/UAH traded within the range of 11.7515-11.8750 and closed at 11.8750.

At 11:16 GMT today USD/UAH was adding 1.47% for the day to trade at 11.8845. The pair touched a daily high at 12.0500 at 11:15 GMT, the pairs highest since April 15th, breaching all three daily key resistance levels and the two key weekly resistances.

Fundamental view

The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.4% during June compared to May, according to the median estimate by experts, following a 6.1% gain in May, that was the biggest since May 2013.

When a sales contract is accepted for a property, it is recorded as a pending home sale. As an indicator the index provides information on the number of future home sales, which are in the pipeline. It gathers data from real estate agents and brokers at the point of a sale of contract and is currently the most accurate indicator regarding US housing sector. It samples over 20% of the market. In addition, over 80% of pending house sales are converted to actual home sales within two or three months. Therefore, this index has a predictive value about actual home sales.

Although there are some cancellations, they are not enough for the data to be skewed one way or another. The base value of the index is equal to 100, while the base year is 2001, when there has been a high level of home sales. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will release the official index value at 14:00 GMT. In case pending home sales increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

In addition, the preliminary Markit US Services Business Activity Index, adjusted for seasonal influences, probably slowed down to 60.5 this month. In June the index came in at 61.0, signalling the strongest rate of output growth since the survey began in October 2009.

The market research group, Markit Economics is scheduled to publish an official report at 13:45 GMT. Higher than expected readings would boost greenbacks demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 11.8338. In case USD/UAH manages to breach the first resistance level at 11.9162, it will probably continue up to test 11.9573. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 12.0397.

If USD/UAH manages to breach the first key support at 11.7927, it will probably continue to slide and test 11.7103. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 11.6692.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 11.7940. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 11.9560, R2 – 12.0370, R3 – 12.1990. The three key support levels are: S1 – 11.7130, S2 – 11.5510, S3 – 11.4700.