Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/NOK traded within the range of 8.3606-8.3872 and closed at 8.3809, gaining 0.12% on a daily basis.

At 6:40 GMT today EUR/NOK was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 8.3802. The pair touched a daily low at 8.3753 in early Asian trade.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Spanish preliminary annualized Gross Domestic Product probably expanded 1.1% during the second quarter of the year, according to market expectations, following a 0.5% gain in Q1. On a quarterly basis, Spains economy probably expanded 0.5%. Larger rates of increase would be supportive to the common currency. The National Institute of Statistics is to release the official GDP estimate at 7:00 GMT.

Spain’s preliminary annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably accelerated to 0.2% in July, from 0.1% in June. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. Spanish preliminary annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably fell to -0.1% in July, after showing no change in the prior month. In case the CPI increased more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute of Statistics will release its official report at 7:00 GMT.

German preliminary annualized Consumer Price Index probably slowed down to 0.8% during the current month from 1.0% in June. The index presents a general picture of the price change in the country, while encompassing all household types, all regions and all goods and services demanded (food, clothing, automobiles, rental, repair and hairdressing services etc). The index is based on a basket of goods and services, which is regularly renewed, so that goods and services, purchased more often by consumers, are included in the present survey.

Nations preliminary annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably also fell to 0.8% in July from 1.0% during the prior month. This methodology is used for the sake of consumer inflation comparison in an international context (member-countries in the Euro area). In case the CPI came below expectations and distanced further from the 2-percent inflation objective, set by the European Central Bank, this would mount selling pressure on the euro. Destatis is scheduled to publish the CPI report at 12:00 GMT.

Consumers in the Euro zone probably had less confidence in economic activity in July, with the corresponding Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) coming in at a reading of 101.8 from 102.0 in June. In case the index fell more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the common currency. Consumer confidence index, a component of the ESI, probably slid to -8.0 this month from -7.50 in June. The gauge of industrial confidence, another comprising element of the ESI, probably worsened in July as well, falling to -4.5 from -4.3 in June. The gauge of services sentiment probably improved to 4.4 this month from 4.2 in June. The European Commission will announce the results from its survey at 9:00 GMT.

Norway

The rate of unemployment in Norway probably rose to 3.4% during the three months through June, according to the median forecast by experts, from 3.3% in June. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. Unemployed persons are persons who were not employed in the survey week, but who had been seeking work during the preceding four weeks, and were available for work within the next two weeks. Persons in the labour force are either employed or unemployed. The remaining group of persons is labelled not in the labour force. Unemployed persons and persons not in the labour force constitute the group of non-employed persons. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even increased further, this would have a bearish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway will release the official employment data at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.3762. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.3919, it will probably continue up to test 8.4028. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.4185.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.3652, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.3496. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.3387.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.3442, M2 – 8.3575, M3 – 8.3708, M4 – 8.3841, M5 – 8.3974, M6 – 8.4107.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.3627. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.4064, R2 – 8.4569, R3 – 8.5006. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.3122, S2 – 8.2685, S3 – 8.2180.