Forex Market: AUD/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9305-0.9388 and closed at 0.9324.

At 8:55 GMT AUD/USD traded at 0.9293, losing 0.4% for the day. The pair touched a daily low at 0.9289 at 8:13 GMT, breaching the first key daily support level and the two key weekly supports.

Fundamental view

Australia

At 23:30 GMT the Australian Industry Group (AIG) is expected to announce the results from its survey on short-term and intermediate-term conditions in the sector of manufacturing in Australia during July. 200 manufacturers provide their assessment of overall business situation in the sector in terms of employment, new orders, output, prices and inventories. The seasonally adjusted Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) for Australia came in at a reading of 48.9 in June. Values below the key level of 50.0 are indicative of contraction in activity. An improvement in the value of this indicator would provide certain support to Australian dollar.

United States

The initial jobless claims in the US probably rose to 300 000 in the week ended July 26th, according to the median estimate by experts, from 284 000 a week ago, that was the weakest level in eight years.

The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. Initial application or (Initial Claim) means a completed document from an unemployed person before the local government, which is considered a claim for compensation or the possibility of compensation. The completion of the initial claim marks the beginning of a period in which the applicant receives unemployment benefits. The survey covers the number of applications registered in the previous week and is an important indicator concerning the health of the US labor market.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims rose less than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) probably improved to a reading of 63.1 in July from 62.6 during the prior month. The index reflects business conditions in region’s manufacturing sector and is interrelated with the Manufacturing Index, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above the key level of 50.0 is indicative of expansion in manufacturing activity. In case the PMI exceeded forecasts, this would heighten the appeal of the US dollar. The MNI Deutche Börse Group will release the official reading of the Chicago barometer at 13:45 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.9339. In case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9373, it will probably continue up to test 0.9422. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9456.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9290, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9256. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9207.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.9409. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.9456, R2 – 0.9518, R3 – 0.9565. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.9347, S2 – 0.9300, S3 – 0.9238.