Forex Market: MXN/RUB daily forecast

Friday’s trade saw MXN/RUB within the range of 2.7239-2.7503. The pair closed at 2.7311, losing 0.09% on a daily basis.

At 9:09 GMT today MXN/RUB was down 0.07% for the day to trade at 2.7265. The pair touched a daily low at 2.7151 at 6:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

Mexico

Mexico’s annualized industrial production probably expanded 0.69% in June, according to the median forecast by experts, following another 1.60% increase in May. Annualized industrial output rose at the fastest pace on record in October 1996, or 20.30%. In monthly terms, nation’s industrial production probably rose 0.32% in June. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case output expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the peso. Insituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Geografia is expected to release the official report at 13:00 GMT.

Russian Federation

The surplus on Russia’s trade balance probably expanded to 18.700 billion USD in June, according to the median forecast by experts, following a surplus of 18.280 billion USD in the prior month. The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form nation’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand.

The Russian Federation registers regular trade surpluses, because of its diversified exports. Nation’s main exports include oil and natural gas, which account for almost 58% of the total exports. Russia also exports nickel, palladium, iron, chemical products, automobiles, military equipment and timber. It imports food, ground transports, pharmaceuticals, textile and footwear. The country had a record-high trade surplus at the amount of 20.356 billion USD in January 2012.

In case the trade balance surplus increased more than anticipated, this would provide support to the ruble. The Central Bank of Russia is scheduled to release the official numbers at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 2.7351. In case MXN/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.7463, it will probably continue up to test 2.7615. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.7727.

If MXN/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 2.7199, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.7087. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.6935.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 2.7011, M2 – 2.7143, M3 – 2.7275, M4 – 2.7407, M5 – 2.7539, M6 – 2.7671.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 2.7274. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 2.7546, R2 – 2.7780, R3 – 2.8052. The three key support levels are: S1 – 2.7040, S2 – 2.6768, S3 – 2.6534.