Forex Market: USD/UAH daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw USD/UAH within the range of 12.9000-13.1700. The pair closed at 13.1250, gaining 1.35% on a daily basis.

At 7:18 GMT today USD/UAH was down 0.09% for the day to trade at 13.1120, which is also the current daily high.

Fundamental view

United States

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably remained unchanged at a reading of 53.0 in August. It is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher than projected readings would provide support to the US dollar. The official data is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Ukraine

Annualized retail sales in Ukraine probably dropped at a pace of 6.96% in July, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 9.30% decrease in June. Annualized sales have been shrinking since April. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. In case retail sales decreased at a slower than expected pace, this would provide certain support to the national currency. The State Statistics Service Of Ukraine is expected to release the official retail sales report at 9:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 13.0650. In case USD/UAH manages to breach the first resistance level at 13.2300, it will probably continue up to test 13.3350. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 13.5000.

If USD/UAH manages to breach the first key support at 12.9600, it will probably continue to slide and test 12.7950. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 12.6900.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 12.7425, M2 – 12.8775, M3 – 13.0125, M4 – 13.1475, M5 – 13.2825, M6 – 13.4175.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 13.1103. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 13.1137, R2 – 13.1153, R3 – 13.1187. The three key support levels are: S1 – 13.1087, S2 – 13.1053, S3 – 13.1037.