Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 36.210 – 36.038. The pair closed at 36.160, gaining 0.08% on a daily basis.

At 9:36 GMT today USD/RUB was down 0.08% for the day to trade at 36.128. The pair held in a daily range of 36.000 – 36.166.

Fundamental view

United States

The US dollar continued to draw support following Tuesday’s overall upbeat data and Fed’s hawkish tone.

Durable goods orders in the United States rose by a record 22.6% in July amid surging bookings for commercial aircraft after an air show in the U.K. in the same month. June’s reading received an upward revision to show a 2.7% growth. The all-time record surge was due to a 318% jump in airplanes orders. Automobile orders also added to the upbeat reading, as demand for autos rose by the most since August 2009.

However, durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, fell by 0.8% in July, following the previous month’s upward-revised 3.0% jump. Large ticket orders, such as automobiles for civil use or aircraft, are not present in the calculation due to their volatility. This way the index provides a more reliable information in regard to orders of durable goods.

Non-military durable goods orders excluding aircraft, considered as a proxy for future business investment, slid by 0.5%, compared to the previous month’s upward revised 5.4% gain.

Meanwhile, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index rose by an annualized 8.1% in June, compared to projections for a slowdown to 8.4% from the preceding month’s 9.3% gain. Month-on-month, single-family homes prices in the observed 20 metropolitan areas rose by 1.0%, matching projections, compared to the previous period’s upward-revised 1.2%.

The dollar received a strong boost after the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence in the US surged in August to the highest in almost seven years. The respective index touched 92.4, defying analysts’ expectations for a drop to 89.0 from July’s downward-revised 90.3. Earlier in the month, data showed that the US economy created more than 200 000 jobs in July for the sixth consecutive month, further supporting Fed’s switch to a hawkish stance.

US data tomorrow is projected to show that the world’s biggest economy expanded by 3.9% in the second quarter, while pending home sales rose in July by 0.6% following June’s 1.1% contraction. Initial jobless claims during the week ended August 23rd probably rose by 2 000 to 300 000.

Russia-Ukraine tensions

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with his Russian counterpart in Minsk, Belarus, as the push towards a ceasefire met support from both sides, and from the West.

The meeting took place the day after 10 Russian military servicemen were captured in Ukraine. Moscow said the group had entered Ukraine “by accident”, but the soldiers themselves said Russia should stop sending troops in Ukraine.

Kiev reported its army had won a skirmish with several dozen armored vehicles, which entered Ukraine from Russia, and were said to be manned by the Russian military disguised as Donbas rebels.

Russia is the world’s top energy exporter, and second-top oil exporter, and investors worried that shipments will be disrupted after Moscow started destabilizing Ukraine earlier this year and the West responded with sanctions. Nothing has managed to curb exports so far, but some analysts see a new Cold War in the making.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 36.136. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 36.234, it will probably continue up to test 36.308. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 36.406.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 36.062, it will probably continue to slide and test 35.964. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 35.890.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 35.927, M2 – 36.013, M3 – 36.099, M4 – 36.185, M5 – 36.271, M6 – 36.357.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 36.154. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 36.384, R2 – 36.622, R3 – 36.852. The three key support levels are: S1 – 35.916, S2 – 35.686, S3 – 35.448.