Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.1921-9.1507. The pair closed at 9.1811, losing 0.11% on a daily but gaining 0.26% on a weekly basis.

At 6:14 GMT today EUR/SEK was down 0.03% for the day to trade at 9.1774. The pair held in a daily range of 9.1764 – 9.1835.

Fundamental view

German economic growth

Destatis reported at 06:00 GMT today that the German economy matched projections and expanded at an annualized 0.8% rate in the second quarter, the lowest rate of growth since Q1 2013. This also matched a preliminary reading released on August 14th and trailed the preceding three months’ 2.5% expansion.

Quarter-on-quarter, the leading EU economy shrank by 0.2%, as expected, matching the preliminary reading and trailing the first quarter’s 0.7% growth.

Eurozone factory growth

Spain’s factory growth probably eased in August, with the Spanish Final Purchasing Managers’ Index expected to register at 53.1, marking a slowdown from 53.9 in July.

Activity in Italy’s sector of manufacturing probably expanded in August at a slower rate as well, with the corresponding PMI expected to come in at a reading of 50.8, from 51.9 in May. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate increased activity. Markit Economics is expected to release the official data at 7:45 GMT on Monday.

France’s final manufacturing PMI probably remained in the zone of contraction this month, confirming the preliminary PMI reading of 46.5, which was reported on August 21st. The official reading is due out at 7:50 GMT. If confirmed, this would be the fourth straight month of contraction.

The final reading of Germany’s manufacturing PMI will probably also confirm the preliminary value, with the index coming in at 52.0, down from 52.2 in July. Markit will release the official reading at 7:55 GMT.

The final manufacturing PMI in the Euro zone probably also confirmed the preliminary value of 50.8 released earlier in August, down from 51.8 in July. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 8:00 GMT. The PMI is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the common currency.

Sweden

Swedens manufacturing sector is expected to have expanded at almost the same rate in August as in July. The corresponding Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, released by Silf and Förenings Sparbanken, is projected to come in at 55.0, compared to 55.2 a month earlier. If confirmed, this would be the 16th straight month of factory growth.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.1746. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.1986, it will probably continue up to test 9.2160. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.2400.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1572, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1332. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1158.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.1245, M2 – 9.1452, M3 – 9.1659, M4 – 9.1866, M5 – 9.2073, M6 – 9.2280.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.1685. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.2185, R2 – 9.2558, R3 – 9.3058. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.1312, S2 – 9.0812, S3 – 9.0439.