Forex Market: EUR/AUD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/AUD within the range of 1.4064-1.4162. The pair closed at 1.4157, gaining 0.63% on a daily basis.

At 7:13 GMT today EUR/AUD was down 0.32% for the day to trade at 1.4117. The pair touched a daily low at 1.4108 at 7:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Activity in Italy’s sector of services probably slowed down in August, with the corresponding final PMI coming in at a reading of 52.0, as expected by experts, down from 52.8 in July. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism (increased activity). Markit Economics is expected to release the official data at 7:45 GMT.

France’s final services PMI probably confirmed the preliminary PMI reading of 51.1, which was reported on August 21st. The official reading is due out at 7:50 GMT.

The final reading of German services PMI probably confirmed the preliminary value for August, with the index coming in at 56.4. Markit will release the official reading at 7:55 GMT.

The final services PMI in the Euro zone probably also confirmed the preliminary value for August, with the index remaining at 53.5. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 8:00 GMT. The PMI is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the common currency.

Annualized retail sales in the Euro region as a whole probably rose 0.9% in July, according to the median forecast by experts, after in June sales climbed 2.4%. In monthly terms, retail sales probably dropped 0.4% during July. This is a short-term indicator, which provides key information about consumption on a national scale. In case the index of retail sales rose at a faster than projected pace, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. Eurostat is expected to publish the official data at 9:00 GMT.

Australia

Australian economy continued to expand during the second quarter of the year, which marked the 23rd consecutive year of economic growth, while other nations plunged into recession. The resource-oriented economy slightly slowed down the pace of growth in Q2, as investment activity in mining industry continued to decrease and amid falling prices of commodities and persistently high exchange rate of the Aussie dollar. Nations Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% in Q2 compared to Q1, outpacing market expectations and following another 1.1% expansion during the first quarter.

In annual terms, Australian economy grew at a pace of 3.1% in Q2, which also surpassed the median forecast by experts, according to the report, released by the statistics bureau at 1:30 GMT today.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.4128. In case EUR/AUD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4191, it will probably continue up to test 1.4226. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4289.

If EUR/AUD manages to breach the first key support at 1.4093, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.4030. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3995.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.4013, M2 – 1.4062, M3 – 1.4111, M4 – 1.4160, M5 – 1.4209, M6 – 1.4258.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.4109. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.4174, R2 – 1.4286, R3 – 1.4351. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.3997, S2 – 1.3932, S3 – 1.3820.