Grains trading outlook: corn futures recover some losses, wheat, soybeans further down

Corn futures corrected some of Wednesdays losses, while wheat and soybeans were pressured further during early trade in Europe today. The USDA reported impeccable quality across all three crops in the US yesterday, reinforcing speculation that this year will see the highest harvests on record.

Weather models project scattered showers across the Midwest and Northern Plains this week, supporting growing crops. Some cool is forecast later on, however, which could slow developing crops, while possible frosting in the Canadian prairies could hurt crops more significantly there. The Southern Plains will also see favorable rains, though only scattered, before some possible heat stress late in the week.

Corn

Corn futures for December delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) stood at $3.530 per bushel at 9:06 GMT, up 0.28% and near a four-year low. Corn dropped ~3.2% yesterday.

Tuesday’s NASS report pointed a still impeccable corn crop condition, with 74% of acreage said to be in good or excellent condition.

Last Month the USDA projected the US corn harvest at the record 14.03 billion bushels, on yields of 167.4 bushels per acre, also at record level.

“The proof is in the pudding,” Dan Dempsey, commodity analyst at EHedger, said for The Wall Street Journal. “You are starting to see it in southern [U.S.] corn yields and southern bean yields.”

Soybeans, wheat

Soybeans futures for November were at $10.192 per bushel, down 0.07%. Beans prices were down ~1.1% at close on Wednesday, after reaching a four-year low of $10.124.

Soybeans crops were also improving, logging 74% of acreage in good or excellent shape.

Meanwhile, December wheat traded at $5.340 per bushel, down 0.33%. The contract lost ~3% yesterday.

NASS’ log put spring wheat crop condition at predominantly good, with 63% of crops reported to be in good or excellent shape. Meanwhile, 38% of acreage was already harvested, which is well-below the 5-year average figure of 65% harvest completion for the same week.

The USDA said last month, that global supplies of wheat at the end of the 2014-15 season will be at the record 192.96 million metric tons.

Technical support and resistance levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat December future’s central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $5.423. The contract will see its first resistance level at $5.497. If breached, it will advance to $5.637 and then to $5.711 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.283. Should it be broken, wheat will test $5.209 and after that $5.069 per bushel.

December corn’s central pivot is at $3.553. The future will have its first resistance at $3.593 and if it broken it will advance first to $3.667 and then to $3.707 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $3.479. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $3.439. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $3.365 per bushel.

Beans November future’s central pivot is projected at $10.203. The contract will have the front resistance level at $10.283. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $10.365 and then $10.445 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $10.121, $10.041 and $9.959 per bushel.