Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 36.959-37.187. The pair closed at 37.099, gaining 0.10% on a daily basis.

At 7:07 GMT today USD/RUB was up 0.18% for the day to trade at 37.164. The pair touched a daily high at 37.167 at 7:08 GMT.

Fundamental view

Russian Federation

The surplus on Russias trade balance probably expanded to 14.80 billion USD in July, according to market expectations. In June the country registered a surplus at the amount of 13.96 billion USD, which was a 24% drop compared to the surplus figure of 18.28 billion USD in May. Total exports decreased at an annualized rate of 2.6% to 40.74 billion USD in June, while imports fell 5.2% to 26.79 billion USD.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form nation’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand.

The Russian Federation registers regular trade surpluses, because of its diversified exports. Nations main exports include oil and natural gas, which account for almost 58% of the total exports. Russia also exports nickel, palladium, iron, chemical products, automobiles, military equipment and timber. It imports food, ground transports, pharmaceuticals, textile and footwear. The country had a record-high trade surplus at the amount of 20.356 billion USD in January 2012.

In case the trade balance surplus shrank more than anticipated, this would have a negative effect on the ruble. The Central Bank of Russia is scheduled to release the official numbers at 12:00 GMT.

Recent US dollar strength

The greenback touched highs unseen in almost six years against the yen on Tuesday on speculation that macroeconomic reports, scheduled for release from the United States at the end of the week, might urge the Federal Reserve Bank to introduce a rate hike in 2015. The next policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is to be conducted on September 16th-17th.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD slumped to fresh lows unseen since July 10th 2013 on diverging monetary policies and macroeconomic conditions in the United States and the Euro zone.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 37.082. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 37.204, it will probably continue up to test 37.310. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 37.432.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 36.976, it will probably continue to slide and test 36.854. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 36.748.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 36.801, M2 – 36.915, M3 – 37.029, M4 – 37.143, M5 – 37.257, M6 – 37.371.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 37.037. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 37.423, R2 – 37.902, R3 – 38.288. The three key support levels are: S1 – 36.558, S2 – 36.172, S3 – 35.693.