Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.1431-8.1738. The pair closed at 8.1652, gaining 0.17% on a daily basis.

At 6:31 GMT today EUR/NOK was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 8.1606. The pair touched a daily low at 8.1522 at 5:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Business climate in Germany probably worsened in September, with the respective gauge slipping to 105.8 from 106.3 in August.

The IFO Business Climate Index reflects entrepreneurs’ sentiment in regard to current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. The index is based on a survey, conducted by phone and encompasses 7 000 companies, that operate in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing industry. The Business Climate Balance represents the difference between the percentage share of respondents that are optimistic and the share of respondents that are pessimistic. The index can fluctuate between -100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as poor and expect business conditions to deteriorate, and +100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as good and expect an improvement in business conditions.

The IFO Business Climate Index is comprised by two equally-weighted sub-indexes – a gauge of expectations and a gauge of current assessment. The IFO expectations index probably dropped to 101.2 in September from 101.7 in August, while the IFO current assessment index probably slid to 110.1 in the current month from 111.1 in August. If any of the gauges registered a larger than projected decline, this might have a bearish effect on the common currency.

The CESifo Group is to release the official numbers at 8:00 GMT.

Norway

The rate of unemployment in Norway probably remained steady at 3.3% during the three months through August, according to the median forecast by experts, after falling to as low as 3.2% in the prior period. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. Unemployed persons are persons who were not employed in the survey week, but who had been seeking work during the preceding four weeks, and were available for work within the next two weeks. Persons in the labor force are either employed or unemployed. The remaining group of persons is labelled not in the labor force. Unemployed persons and persons not in the labor force constitute the group of non-employed persons. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even fell further, this would have a bullish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway will release the official employment data at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.1607. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.1783, it will probably continue up to test 8.1914. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.2090.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.1475, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.1300. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.1169.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.1235, M2 – 8.1388, M3 – 8.1542, M4 – 8.1695, M5 – 8.1849, M6 – 8.2002.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.2023. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.2701, R2 – 8.3891, R3 – 8.4569. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.0833, S2 – 8.0155, S3 – 7.8965.