Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily trading forecast

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.1645-9.1952. The pair closed at 9.1752, losing 0.09% on a daily basis.

At 6:59 GMT today EUR/SEK was up 0.08% for the day to trade at 9.1809. The pair touched a daily high at 9.1875 at 6:40 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Italian retail sales

Seasonally adjusted retail sales in Italy probably increased 0.2% in July compared to June, according to the median forecast by experts, after in June the index of sales had a flat performance, while in May sales dropped 0.7%. Annualized sales probably decreased 0.7% in July, after in June the index dropped 2.6%, or the most considerable decline since March.

The index reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend. However, as retail sales in Italy tend to be seasonal and volatile, a larger than expected rate of increase would have a limited bullish effect on the euro. The National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) is to release the official data at 8:00 GMT.

Draghi remarks

On Wednesday European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the financial institution will continue the current policy course of low rates for as long as it takes for the rate of inflation in the Euro region to approach the 2% inflation target, providing price stability. Draghi also stressed on the need for structural reforms in some of the member states in the region.

Sweden

Producer prices in Sweden probably climbed at an annualized rate of 2.0% in August, following a 1.4% increase in July, with the latter being the slowest pace since March.

The Producer Price Index measures changes in prices of goods and services either as they leave the production process, or as they enter it. Unlike the CPI, which measures price changes from the consumers perspective, PPI basically gauges the prices received by domestic producers for their output, or the prices paid by domestic producers for their intermediate inputs. Generally speaking, a higher-than-expected PPI reading should be considered as having a bullish effect on the Swedish krone, while a lower-than-expected result – a bearish effect. The official data is due out at 7:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.1783. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.1921, it will probably continue up to test 9.2090. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.2228.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1614, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1476. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1307.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.1392, M2 – 9.1545, M3 – 9.1699, M4 – 9.1852, M5 – 9.2006, M6 – 9.2159.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.1947. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.2556, R2 – 9.3350, R3 – 9.3959. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.1153, S2 – 9.0544, S3 – 8.9750.

As can be seen on the chart, EUR/SEK has found resistance on multiple occasions at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (the white line) over the past few trading days, while forming a trading range. A breakout from such can occur from either side, but still neither the ADX, nor the MACD are providing a relevant signal.