Forex Market: EUR/SEK daily trading forecast

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/SEK within the range of 9.1638-9.2132. The pair closed at 9.1948, gaining 0.21% on a daily basis.

At 6:15 GMT today EUR/SEK was down 0.05% for the day to trade at 9.1886. The pair touched a daily low at 9.1858 at 6:04 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

French Consumer Confidence

Confidence among consumers in France probably remained unchanged, with the respective index coming in at a reading of 86 in September, according to the median forecast by experts, from 85.8 in August. In July the indicator was reported at 86.3.

The index of consumer confidence is based on a survey, encompassing about 2 000 households. Respondents give their opinion regarding past and future economic situation in France, past and future personal financial situation, unemployment, intention to make major purchases, current savings capacity and expected savings capacity.

The indicator is calculated using factor analysis technique. The index is then calculated in a way to measure the current confidence compared to the historic index values during the period 1987-2011. If the gauge shows a reading over 110, this suggests that optimism is higher than normal. If the index shows a reading under 90, this implies that pessimism is higher than normal. Readings of 100.0 signify neutrality.

Improving confidence is related with greater willingness to spend, therefore, higher than projected values may provide support to the euro. The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) is to publish the official data at 6:45 GMT.

Italian Business Confidence

Confidence among manufacturing companies in Italy probably remained almost unchanged, with the corresponding index coming in at 95.5 in September, from 95.7 in August.

The Manufacturing Confidence survey features 4 000 Italian companies. Respondents give their opinion regarding the current trend of order books, production and inventories, short-term forecasts on order books, production, prices and the general economic situation.

The index of business confidence is seasonally adjusted and has a base year of 2005. Readings of 100.0 signify neutrality in business sentiment. Values exceeding 100.0 imply improving confidence, while values below 100.0 are related with low expectations. Higher than anticipated values may have a limited bullish effect on the common currency. The official reading by ISTAT is due out at 9:00 GMT.

Sweden

The surplus on Swedens balance of trade probably expanded to 3.0 billion SEK in August, according to market expectations, from 1.9 billion SEK in the prior month. Total exports were reported at 86.9 billion SEK in July, while total imports were at the amount of 85.0 billion SEK. Compared to July 2013, exports rose 2%, while imports climbed 4%, according to data by Statistics Sweden.

Major exports include machinery, motor vehicles, paper products, pulp and wood, iron and steel products, chemicals, while major imports are machinery, petroleum and petroleum products, chemicals, motor vehicles, iron and steel.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally speaking, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand.

In case the trade balance surplus expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the krone. Statistics Sweden is expected to release the official numbers at 7:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 9.1906. In case EUR/SEK manages to breach the first resistance level at 9.2174, it will probably continue up to test 9.2400. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 9.2668.

If EUR/SEK manages to breach the first key support at 9.1680, it will probably continue to slide and test 9.1412. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 9.1186.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 9.1299, M2 – 9.1546, M3 – 9.1793, M4 – 9.2040, M5 – 9.2287, M6 – 9.2534.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 9.1947. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 9.2556, R2 – 9.3350, R3 – 9.3959. The three key support levels are: S1 – 9.1153, S2 – 9.0544, S3 – 8.9750.