Forex Market: USD/BRL daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/BRL within the range of 2.4388-2.4891. The pair closed at 2.4815, gaining 1.45% on a daily basis.

At 8:09 GMT today USD/BRL was up 0.15% for the day to trade at 2.4855. The pair broke the first key weekly resistance and touched a daily high at 2.4856 at 8:01 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 26th, probably rose to 297 000 from 293 000 in the prior week. The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was reported at 298 500, or a decrease by 1 250 from the previous weeks revised average. The prior weeks average was revised up by 250 from 299 500 to 299 750.

In the week ended on September 12th the number of claims reached 280 000, or the lowest in eight weeks.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably decreased to the seasonally adjusted 2 438 000 during the week ended on September 19th, from 2 439 000 in the previous week. The latter was an increase by 7 000 compared to the revised number of claims, reported during the week ended on September 5th. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Factory Orders

Factory orders in the United States probably dropped 9.0% in August compared to July, following a surge by 10.5% in the prior month, or the largest monthly increase on record, supported by an increase in transportation equipment. Excluding the sector of transportation, factory orders dropped 0.8% in July. This indicator presents the total value of new purchase orders, placed at manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods, and can provide insight into inflation and growth in US manufacturing sector. In case new orders dropped more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback. US Census Bureau will release the official data at 14:00 GMT.

Brazil

Brazils annualized industrial production probably contracted 5.7% in August, according to the median forecast by experts, following another 3.6% decrease in July. If so, this would be the sixth consecutive month of contraction and also the largest annualized drop rate since June. In monthly terms, industrial output probably climbed 0.2% in August, after a 0.7% expansion in July, which followed four successive months of contraction. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output shrank more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the local currency. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) will release the official industrial data at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 2.4698. In case USD/BRL manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.5008, it will probably continue up to test 2.5201. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.5511.

If USD/BRL manages to breach the first key support at 2.4505, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.4195. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.4002.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 2.4099, M2 – 2.4350, M3 – 2.4602, M4 – 2.4853, M5 – 2.5105, M6 – 2.5356.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 2.4087. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 2.4549, R2 – 2.4897, R3 – 2.5359. The three key support levels are: S1 – 2.3739, S2 – 2.3277, S3 – 2.2929.