Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 13.4080-13.4825. The pair closed at 13.4550, gaining 0.20% on a daily basis.

At 7:49 GMT today USD/MXN was down 0.21% for the day to trade at 13.4268. The pair touched a daily low at 13.4161 at 5:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended on September 26th, probably rose to 297 000 from 293 000 in the prior week. The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was reported at 298 500, or a decrease by 1 250 from the previous weeks revised average. The prior weeks average was revised up by 250 from 299 500 to 299 750.

In the week ended on September 12th the number of claims reached 280 000, or the lowest in eight weeks.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably decreased to the seasonally adjusted 2 438 000 during the week ended on September 19th, from 2 439 000 in the previous week. The latter was an increase by 7 000 compared to the revised number of claims, reported during the week ended on September 5th. This indicator represents the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Factory Orders

Factory orders in the United States probably dropped 9.0% in August compared to July, following a surge by 10.5% in the prior month, or the largest monthly increase on record, supported by an increase in transportation equipment. Excluding the sector of transportation, factory orders dropped 0.8% in July. This indicator presents the total value of new purchase orders, placed at manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods, and can provide insight into inflation and growth in US manufacturing sector. In case new orders dropped more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback. US Census Bureau will release the official data at 14:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 13.4485. In case USD/MXN manages to breach the first resistance level at 13.4892, it will probably continue up to test 13.5230. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 13.5635.

If USD/MXN manages to breach the first key support at 13.4144, it will probably continue to slide and test 13.3740. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 13.3400.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 13.3570, M2 – 13.3943, M3 – 13.4315, M4 – 13.4688, M5 – 13.5060, M6 – 13.5433.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 13.3807. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 13.5530, R2 – 13.6589, R3 – 13.8312. The three key support levels are: S1 – 13.2748, S2 – 13.1025, S3 – 12.9966.