Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.2289-8.3347. The pair closed at 8.3290, gaining 0.90% on a daily basis.

At 6:33 GMT today EUR/NOK was down 0.06% for the day to trade at 8.3234. The pair touched a daily low at 8.3087 at 1:20 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

Spains current account probably produced a deficit of 0.3 billion EUR in July, according to market expectations. In June the country had a surplus at the amount of 0.517 billion EUR, which followed five consecutive months with a deficit.

The current account reflects the difference between savings and investments in the country. It is the sum of the balance of trade, net current transfers (cash transfers) and net income from abroad (earnings from investments made abroad plus money sent by individuals working abroad to their families back home, minus payments made to foreign investors).

A current account surplus indicates that the net foreign assets of the country have increased by the respective amount, while a deficit suggests the opposite. A nation with a surplus on its current account is considered as a net lender to the rest of the world, while a current account deficit puts it in the position of a net borrower. A net lender is consuming less than it is producing, which means it is saving and those savings are being invested abroad, or foreign assets are created. A net borrower is consuming more than it is producing, which means that other countries are lending it their savings, or foreign liabilities are created. A larger than projected deficit on Spains current account might have a limited bearish effect on the euro.

The Bank of Spain is expected to release the official data at 8:00 GMT.

Norway

At 8:00 GMT Statistics Norway is to report on nations balance of trade regarding September. In August Norway had a surplus at the amount of 22.355 billion NOK, down from 22.585 billion NOK in July. Nations balance of trade produced a record high surplus of 48.270 billion NOK in January this year.

International trade accounts for almost 37% of Norway’s Gross Domestic Product. Countrys main exports include seafood, crude oil, light metals, ship equipment and maritime services, while it imports mostly machinery and equipment, chemicals, metals, and foodstuffs.

In case of contracting trade surplus in September, this would lead to a sell-off in the local currency.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.2975. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.3662, it will probably continue up to test 8.4033. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.4720.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.2604, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.1917. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.1546.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.1732, M2 – 8.2261, M3 – 8.2790, M4 – 8.3319, M5 – 8.3848, M6 – 8.4377.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.2202. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.2889, R2 – 8.3572, R3 – 8.4259. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.1519, S2 – 8.0832, S3 – 8.0149.