Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 40.770-41.090. The pair closed at 41.047, gaining 0.75% on a daily basis.

At 7:03 GMT today USD/RUB was down 0.03% for the day to trade at 41.032. The pair touched a daily low at 40.925 during early Asian trade.

Fundamentals

United States

The index of existing home sales in the United States probably gained 1.0% to a level of 5.10 million in September compared to August. In August compared to July existing home sales dropped 1.8% to 5.05 million. Julys level of 5.140 million has been the highest since September 2013.

The sample of data encompasses condos, co-ops and single-family houses.

Statistical data on existing home sales is often used along with statistical figures regarding the new home sales and pending home sales, with the major objective being to draw a conclusion how nation’s housing sector is performing, regardless of interest rates. The most active house-purchasing period in the United States is usually between the months of March through June. Therefore, in case statistical data revealed a sudden drop in the number of homes sold rather than an improvement during this period, this would be considered as a signal of weakness in country’s housing market.

The report on existing home sales usually does not cause a real direct impact on US economy. Actually, this effect appears to be minimal, due to the fact that nothing is produced with the mere sale of an existing home. In terms of economic activity, the sale of an existing house may be related only to interior design and purchases of new furniture.

The reason markets pay a certain attention to existing home sales report is that it reveals much about the general course of nation’s economy. A major part of the population considers a house as a sign of wealth and, unlike the money wealth, which is concentrated in certain regions of the country and held by the wealthiest representatives of the population, ”housing wealth” is evenly distributed across the country.

In case the index increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is to release the official figure at 14:00 GMT.

Russias debt rating cut by Moodys

On October 17th Moodys Investors Service announced that it downgraded the government of Russias debt rating by one notch to Baa2 (or the second lowest level) from Baa1. The short-term rating is confirmed at Prime-2 (P-2), while the outlook on the nations debt rating remains negative, according to the ratings agency. The main reasons for this decision were the increasingly subdued intermediate-term economic growth prospects of the country, the gradual, but yet ongoing erosion of its foreign-exchange buffers due to capital flight, the restrained international market access for Russian borrowers as well as low prices of oil.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 40.969. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 41.168, it will probably continue up to test 41.289. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 41.488.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 40.848, it will probably continue to slide and test 40.649. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 40.528.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 40.589, M2 – 40.749, M3 – 40.909, M4 – 41.069, M5 – 41.229, M6 – 41.389.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 40.706. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 41.212, R2 – 41.675, R3 – 42.181. The three key support levels are: S1 – 40.243, S2 – 39.737, S3 – 39.274.