Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 13.6532-13.5510. The pair closed at 13.6367, gaining 0.46% on a daily basis.

At 9:14 GMT today USD/MXN was up 0.06% for the day to trade at 13.6456. The pair held in a daily range of 13.6257-13.6481.

Fundamental view

United States

Employers in all sectors of economy in the United States, excluding the farming industry, probably added 231 000 new jobs in October, according to the median forecast by experts, after a job gain of 248 000 in September.

The non-farm payrolls report presents the total number of US employees in any business, excluding the following four groups: farm employees, general government employees, employees of non-profit organizations, private household employees. Despite its volatility and the possibility of large revisions, the non-farm payrolls indicator presents the most timely and comprehensive reflection of the current economic state. Total non-farm payrolls account for 80% of the workers who produce almost the entire Gross Domestic Product of the United States. In case of a larger-than-expected gain in jobs, the US dollar would receive a boost.

Average Hourly Earnings probably rose 0.2% on a monthly basis after remaining flat in September, while average weekly hours were unchanged at 34.6.

The rate of unemployment in the country likely remained unchanged at 5.9% last month. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment.

A person who is not classified as employed or unemployed is excluded from the statistics. One counts as unemployed, if he falls in all of the following categories: he/she was unemployed during the last week; he/she is able bodied; he/she has been seeking employment for a period of at least four weeks, which end during the week when the research is conducted. People, who have been laid off and are awaiting to be hired again, are also classified as unemployed. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even fell further, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official employment data at 13:30 GMT.

At 15:15 GMT Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to take a statement. Yellen took office as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on February 3rd 2014 for a four-year mandate ending on February 3rd 2018.

Mexico

The annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) in Mexico probably accelerated to 4.30% in October, according to the median forecast by experts, from 4.22% in September. If confirmed, this would be the highest since January.

Month-on-month, consumer inflation is projected to have accelerated by 0.56% compared to 0.44% in September. Core CPI probably advanced 0.18%, down from 0.29% a month earlier.

Insituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Geografia (INEGI) is expected to release the official report at 14:00 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 13.6136. In case USD/MXN manages to breach the first resistance level at 13.6763, it may continue up to test 13.7158. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair could attempt to advance to 13.7785.

If USD/MXN manages to breach the first key support at 13.5741, it will probably continue to slide and test 13.5114. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside may continue to 13.4719.

The mid-pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 13.4917, M2 – 13.5428, M3 – 13.5939, M4 – 13.6450, M5 – 13.6961, M6 – 13.7472.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 13.5018. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 13.6057, R2 – 13.7341, R3 – 13.8380. The three key support levels are: S1 – 13.3734, S2 – 13.2695, S3 – 13.1411.