Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 46.575-47.258. The pair closed at 46.908, losing 0.45% on a daily basis.

At 8:25 GMT today USD/RUB was up 0.34% for the day to trade at 47.033. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and touched a daily high at 47.444 at 4:20 GMT. USD/RUB has appreciated 37.34% since the beginning of the year, as the major part of this advance was accumulated in the past five months due to geopolitical factors.

Fundamentals

United States

Building permits and Housing starts

The number of housing starts in the United States probably increased to 1.025 million in October from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.017 million during the prior month. If so, this would be the highest number of housing starts since July, when 1.117 million sites were reported. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 646 000, or 1.1% above the revised figure of 639 000 in August. The September rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 353 000, according to data by the US Census Bureau.

Housing Starts represent a gauge to measure residential units, on which construction has already begun, every month. A start in construction is defined as the foundation laying of a building and it encompasses residential housing primarily.

The number of building permits in the country probably rose to 1.040 million in October from an unrevised annual level of 1.018 million in September. If so, this would be the highest number of permits since July, when 1.052 million units were reported. Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 624 000, or 0.5% below the revised number of 627 000 in August. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 369 000 in September, according to the report by the Census Bureau.

Building permits are permits, issued in order to allow excavation. An increase in the number of building permits and housing starts usually occurs a few months after mortgage rates in the country have been reduced. Permits are not required in all regions of the United States. Building permits, as an indicator, provide information regarding demand in US housing market. In case a higher-than-anticipated number is reported, this will certainly support the greenback. The official housing data is due out at 13:30 GMT.

FOMC minutes

At 19:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on October 28th-29th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

Russian Federation

Russian annualized industrial production probably expanded 1.5% in October, according to market expectations. In September production index surged at a rate of 2.8%, or the most since May. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output expanded more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the ruble. The Federal State Statistics Service will release the official industrial data at 13:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 46.914. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 47.252, it will probably continue up to test 47.597. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 47.935.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 46.569, it will probably continue to slide and test 46.231. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 45.886.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 46.059, M2 – 46.400, M3 – 46.742, M4 – 47.083, M5 – 47.425, M6 – 47.766.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 46.666. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 48.379, R2 – 49.559, R3 – 51.272. The three key support levels are: S1 – 45.486, S2 – 43.773, S3 – 42.593.