Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 13.5930-13.6737. The pair closed at 13.6200, losing 0.23% on a daily basis.

At 9:06 GMT today USD/MXN was up 0.17% for the day to trade at 13.6395. The pair touched a daily high at 13.6431 at 9:04 GMT.

Fundamentals

United States

Services PMI data by Markit

Activity in the US sector of services was probably little changed in November, with the corresponding preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index coming in at a reading of 56.9. If so, this would be the lowest index reading since April, when the final value was reported at 55.0. In September the final seasonally adjusted PMI stood at 57.1, down from a preliminary value of 57.3. The PMI is based on data collected from a representative panel of more than 400 private sector companies, which encompasses industries such as transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT and hotels and restaurants. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism (expanding activity). Lower-than-expected PMI readings would mount selling pressure on the US dollar. The preliminary data by Markit Economics is due out at 14:45 GMT.

Mexico

The rate of unemployment in Mexico probably climbed to 5.1% during October, according to the median forecast by experts. In September the rate was reported at 5.08% and in August – 5.18%. The labor force participation rate decreased 0.49% to 58.64% in September compared to a year ago. The underemployed rate rose 0.1% year–on–year to 8.4% during the same period. The jobless rate represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. The rate of unemployment also reflects overall economic state in the country, as there is a strong correlation between consumer spending levels and labor market conditions. High rates of unemployment are accompanied by weaker spending, which causes an adverse effect on corporate profits and also leads to overall growth deceleration. Therefore, in case the rate of unemployment rose more than expected, this would have a bearish effect on the local currency. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía is to announce the official rate at 14:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 13.6289. In case USD/MXN manages to breach the first resistance level at 13.6648, it will probably continue up to test 13.7096. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 13.7455.

If USD/MXN manages to breach the first key support at 13.5841, it will probably continue to slide and test 13.5482. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 13.5034.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 13.5258, M2 – 13.5662, M3 – 13.6065, M4 – 13.6469, M5 – 13.6872, M6 – 13.7276.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 13.6053. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 13.6884, R2 – 13.7568, R3 – 13.8399. The three key support levels are: S1 – 13.5369, S2 – 13.4538, S3 – 13.3854.