Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7910-0.7941. The pair closed at 0.7918, gaining 0.20% on a daily basis.

At 7:13 GMT today EUR/GBP was down 0.11% for the day to trade at 0.7906. The pair broke the first key daily and the first key weekly support levels and touched a daily low at 0.7903.

Fundamentals

Euro zone

Services PMI data by Markit

Services sector in Spain probably registered lower activity in November, with the respective Purchasing Managers Index slipping to 55.2, according to expectations, from 55.9 in October. If so, this would be the lowest PMI reading since June, when the indicator was reported at 54.8. The official value for November is due out at 8:15 GMT.

Activity in Italys sector of services probably also slowed down in November, with the corresponding PMI coming in at a reading of 50.3, as expected by experts, from 50.8 in the prior month. The latter has been the highest PMI value since July, when the index stood at 52.8. Markit Economics is expected to release the official data at 8:45 GMT.

Frances final services PMI probably remained in the zone of contraction for a third consecutive month during November, while confirming the preliminary PMI reading of 48.8, which was reported on November 20th. In October the final services PMI was estimated at 48.3, or the lowest since June, when the indicator came in at 48.2. The official reading is due out at 8:50 GMT.

The final reading of German services PMI probably confirmed the preliminary value for November, with the index coming in at 52.1, according to market expectations. If confirmed, this would be the lowest PMI reading since July 2013, when it was reported at 51.3. In October the final services PMI was registered at 54.4. The index is based on data collected from a representative panel of more than 500 companies, operating in Germanys services sector, and gauges variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. Markit will release the official reading at 8:55 GMT.

The final services PMI in the Euro area probably also confirmed the preliminary value for November, with the index remaining at 51.3. If confirmed, this would be the lowest level since January, when the final PMI was reported at 51.0. In October the index came in at 52.3, according to final data. The Purchasing Managers Index is based on a monthly survey, encompassing a sample of approximately 2 000 business entities, which represents private sector conditions in terms of new orders, output, employment, prices etc. National services data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Republic of Ireland. Readings above the key level of 50.0 indicate optimism (increasing activity). Lower-than-expected values of any of the above mentioned PMIs would lead to a sell-off in the common currency. The official reading is scheduled to be released at 9:00 GMT.

Euro zone Retail Sales

Annualized retail sales in the Euro region as a whole probably rose 1.4% in October, according to the median forecast by experts, after in September sales climbed 0.6%. In monthly terms, retail sales probably increased 0.5% during October, following a 1.3% drop in September, or the most since December 2013. This is a short-term indicator, which provides key information about consumption on a national scale. In case the index of retail sales rose at a faster-than-projected pace, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. Eurostat is expected to publish the official data at 10:00 GMT.

United Kingdom

Services sector activity

Activity in United Kingdom’s sector of services probably slightly increased in November, with the corresponding PMI coming in at 56.5, up from 56.2 in the prior month. Octobers PMI reading has been the lowest since May 2013, when the index was registered at 54.9. The index is based on a survey, encompassing managers of companies, that operate in sectors such as transportation, communications, IT, financial intermediation, tourism. They are asked about their estimate regarding current business conditions (new orders, output, employment, demand in the future). Values above the key level of 50.0 signify that activity in the sector has expanded. Larger-than-projected improvement in the index value would certainly heighten the appeal of the pound. The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) is to announce the official reading at 9:30 GMT.

Autumn Statement

At 12:30 GMT the HM Treasury is to present this years Autumn Statement. It is one of the two statements, which the Treasury makes every year to Parliament upon publication of economic forecasts. The document presents an updated economic outlook and also previews the governments budget for the next year.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7923. In case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7936, it will probably continue up to test 0.7954. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7967.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7905, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7892. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7874.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.7883, M2 – 0.7899, M3 – 0.7914, M4 – 0.7930, M5 – 0.7945, M6 – 0.7961.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.7941. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.7984, R2 – 0.8015, R3 – 0.8058. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.7910, S2 – 0.7867, S3 – 0.7836.