Forex Market: USD/TRY daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/TRY within the range of 2.2530-2.2721. The pair closed at 2.2674, losing 0.05% on a daily basis.

At 7:58 GMT today USD/TRY was down 0.20% for the day to trade at 2.2618. The pair touched a daily low at 2.2609 at 7:47 GMT.

Fundamentals

United States

Monthly Budget Statement

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of USD 72.5 billion in November, according to market expectations, after a deficit of USD 121.7 billion during the previous month. The latter was a 34% increase compared to the same month last year. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or USD 231.677 billion. In October total receipts were at the amount of USD 213 billion, or a 7% increase compared to the same month a year earlier, while total outlays were recorded at USD 334 billion during the period, up 16%. The budget results were influenced by differences in the calendar and, if adjusted for timing-related transactions, the budget deficit in October would have been USD 84 billion, according to the report by the US Treasury.

A lesser-than-projected deficit would have a certain bullish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 19:00 GMT.

Turkey

Gross Domestic Product

Turkish economy probably expanded at an annualized rate of 3% during the third quarter of the year, according to the median forecast by experts, after in Q2 the Gross Domestic Product grew at the slowest annual pace since Q4 2012, or 2.1%. Household consumption rose at an annual rate of 0.4% in Q2, slowing from a 3.2% expansion in the preceding quarter. Government expenditures grew at a slower 2.4%, after a 9.2% increase in the preceding quarter. The countrys exports rose at a more modest 5.5% in the second quarter of the year, while imports dropped 4.6%. In Q1 exports surged 11.1% year-on-year, while imports were up 0.7%.

In case Turkish economy registered a larger-than-projected expansion in the third quarter, the local currency would receive support. The Turkish Statistical Institute is to release the official GDP report at 8:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 2.2642. In case USD/TRY manages to breach the first resistance level at 2.2753, it will probably continue up to test 2.2833. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 2.2944.

If USD/TRY manages to breach the first key support at 2.2562, it will probably continue to slide and test 2.2451. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 2.2371.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 2.2411, M2 – 2.2507, M3 – 2.2602, M4 – 2.2698, M5 – 2.2793, M6 – 2.2889.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 2.2462. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 2.2810, R2 – 2.3009, R3 – 2.3357. The three key support levels are: S1 – 2.2263, S2 – 2.1915, S3 – 2.1716.