Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 51.843-54.218. The daily low was also the lowest level since December 2nd. The pair closed at 53.100, losing 0.84% on a daily basis.

At 13:47 GMT today USD/RUB was up 6.05% for the day to trade at 54.297. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and registered a daily high at 54.703 at 12:45 GMT.

Fundamentals

USD/RUB performance

US dollar managed to regain certain ground against the Russian ruble today, following four consecutive trading days of losses.

Friday’s decline of the ruble against the greenback shows the fragility of coordinated measures by the Russian government and Russias central bank, which helped the local currency bounce from an all-time low of 80.024, registered on December 16th. Gazprom and four other state-controlled exporting companies were ordered this week to reduce their holdings of foreign currency by March 1st to levels not exceeding those on October 1st. At the same time, the central bank attempted to ensure that banks have an easier access to US dollars and euros.

“Exporters have to sell, and while volumes aren’t that large, it’s enough to move this thin market,” Iskander Abdullaev, analyst at Sberbank CIB, said in e-mailed comments, cited by Bloomberg. “The market’s firmness will be tested later today when U.S. opens. I think there was an instruction to calm down the rate until the end of the year, so that retail clients don’t panic before holidays.”

The ruble has depreciated 39% since the beginning of the year, which marked the worst performance among 24 developing countries currencies, tracked by the same media. The Russian currency is poised to record the worst year since 1998, when the Russian Federation defaulted on debt.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 53.054. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 54.264, it will probably continue up to test 55.429. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 56.639.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 51.889, it will probably continue to slide and test 50.679. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 49.514.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 50.097, M2 – 51.284, M3 – 52.472, M4 – 53.659, M5 – 54.847, M6 – 56.034.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 65.396. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 72.883, R2 – 87.511, R3 – 94.998. The three key support levels are: S1 – 50.768, S2 – 43.281, S3 – 28.653.