Forex Market: AUD/USD trading forecast for Monday

Friday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.8103-0.8213. The pair closed at 0.8205, gaining 1.00% on a daily basis. The pair soared 1.43% during the whole week, which followed seven consecutive weeks of losses.

Fundamentals

Australia

Home loans

The number of home loans in Australia probably rose 2.0% in November, according to the median forecast by experts, following a 0.3% gain in October. If so, this would be the largest monthly rate of increase since February, when the number of loans was reported to have increased 2.3%. This is a key indicator of the housing market trend in the country, while also implying how strong consumer confidence is. A higher number of home loans suggests that consumers feel confident about their financial prospects in the future, therefore, this usually provides support to the national currency. A lower number of loans suggests the opposite. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is to release the official data at 0:30 GMT on Monday.

ANZ Job Advertisements

Also at 0:30 GMT the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) will publish data regarding the number of job advertisements in Australia in December. It encompasses advertisements in the major metropolitan newspapers and on the Internet sites. The corresponding index, based on a survey by the ANZ, climbed 0.7% in November compared to October. This indicator is used for projecting growth in employment in Australia, as it reflects labor market conditions in the future. An increase in the number of jobs would have a limited bullish effect on the Aussie.

US Dollar longs at a record

Market players increased their futures positions that profit from the appreciation of the US dollar to a record during the week, while not taking into account warnings that positions are overstretched, as the Federal Reserve Bank is moving closer to raise the target for its federal funds rate at sometime this year. Meanwhile, Japan and Europe will probably see further accommodation of monetary policy. Hedge funds and other institutional speculators increased futures contracts betting on the greenback’s strength against eight other major currencies to 431 961 as of January 6th, or the most in data going back to 2003, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as reported by Bloomberg.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.8174. In case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8244, it will probably continue up to test 0.8284. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8354.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.8134, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8064. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8024.

The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 0.8044, M2 – 0.8099, M3 – 0.8154, M4 – 0.8209, M5 – 0.8264, M6 – 0.8319.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.8150. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.8268, R2 – 0.8332, R3 – 0.8450. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.8086, S2 – 0.7968, S3 – 0.7904.