Forex Market: USD/JPY daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/JPY within the range of 118.49-120.47. The pair closed at 119.11, losing 1.13% on a daily basis.

On Wednesday the cross rose to as high as 120.50, which has been the highest level since January 5th, when a high of 120.64 was recorded.

At 9:53 GMT today USD/JPY was down 0.18% for the day to trade at 118.89. The pair touched a daily low at 118.42 at 4:20 GMT.

Fundamentals

United States

Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The monthly survey by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan may show that consumer confidence in the United States remained without change in February. The preliminary reading of the corresponding index, which usually comes out two weeks ahead of the final data, probably remained at 98.1 during the current month, matching the final reading from January. This has been the highest index value since January 2004, as current expectations were boosted by stable gains in jobs and wages. The survey encompasses about 500 respondents throughout the country. The index is comprised by two major components, a gauge of current conditions and a gauge of expectations. The current conditions index is based on the answers to two standard questions, while the index of expectations is based on three standard questions. All five questions have an equal weight in determining the value of the overall index.

The sub-index of current economic conditions increased to a final reading of 109.3 from a preliminary 108.3 in January, after a month ago it stood at 104.8. The sub-index of consumer expectations came in at a reading of 91.0, down from a preliminary value of 91.6 in January, but improving from a final 86.4, registered in December.

In case the gauge of consumer sentiment came above projections in February, this would boost demand for the greenback. The preliminary reading is due out at 14:55 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 119.36. In case USD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 120.22, it will probably continue up to test 121.34. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 122.20.

If USD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 118.24, it will probably continue to slide and test 117.38. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 116.26.

The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 116.82, M2 – 117.81, M3 – 118.80, M4 – 119.79, M5 – 120.78, M6 – 121.77.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 118.29. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 119.93, R2 – 120.88, R3 – 122.52. The three key support levels are: S1 – 117.34, S2 – 115.70, S3 – 114.75.