Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7337-0.7432. The pair closed at 0.7391, gaining 0.20% on a daily basis.

At 7:21 GMT today EUR/GBP was down 0.18% for the day to trade at 0.7385. The pair touched a daily low at 0.7384 at 7:20 GMT.

Fundamentals

Euro area

German IFO Business Climate Indicator

Business climate in Germany probably continued to improve in February, with the respective gauge rising to 107.7 from 106.7 in January. If so, this would be the highest index reading since July 2014, when the indicator came in at 108.0.

The IFO Business Climate Index reflects entrepreneurs’ sentiment in regard to current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. The index is based on a survey, conducted by phone and encompasses 7 000 companies, that operate in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing industry. The Business Climate Balance represents the difference between the percentage share of respondents that are optimistic and the share of respondents that are pessimistic. The balance can fluctuate between -100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as poor and expect business conditions to deteriorate, and +100, which suggests all responding companies assess their situation as good and expect an improvement in business conditions. In order to calculate the IFO Business Climate Index, the Balance is normalized to the average of a base year, which currently is 2005.

The IFO Business Climate Index is comprised by two equally-weighted sub-indexes – a gauge of expectations and a gauge of current assessment. The IFO expectations index probably rose to 103.0 in February from 102.0 in January. If so, this would be the highest level since July 2014, when it was reported at 103.4. The IFO current assessment index probably advanced to 112.7 in the current month from 111.7 in January. If so, this would be the highest index value since July 2014, when the indicator stood at 112.9. In case any of the gauges registered a larger-than-projected increase, this might have a bullish effect on the single currency.

The CESifo Group is to release the official numbers at 9:00 GMT.

Greek debt agreement

European finance ministers agreed on Friday to extend Greece’s current bailout deal by four months. However, the region’s most indebted country needs to prepare a list of political measures, which would have to get the approval of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Europe’s finance ministers are set to review the proposals on Tuesday.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7387. In case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7433, it will probably continue up to test 0.7476. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7522.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7344, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7298. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7255.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.7277, M2 – 0.7321, M3 – 0.7366, M4 – 0.7410, M5 – 0.7455, M6 – 0.7499.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.7391. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.7443, R2 – 0.7495, R3 – 0.7547. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.7339, S2 – 0.7287, S3 – 0.7235.