Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CAD within the range of 1.3391-1.3503. The daily low has also been the lowest level since May 31st 2013, when a low of 1.3375 was recorded. The pair closed at 1.3492, gaining 0.32% on a daily basis.
At 8:32 GMT today EUR/CAD was up 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.3511. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3521 at 8:10 GMT.
Fundamentals
Euro area
Italian Consumer Inflation – final estimate
Italys final annualized consumer inflation was probably at -0.2% in February, matching the preliminary inflation estimate, reported on February 27th. In January the final annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) fell 0.6%, confirming the preliminary CPI estimate. It has been the lowest level since 1958, when the national institute of statistics began publishing the inflation rate. According to provisional data, in February the largest annual price drop was reported for energy costs (-8.5%). Additional downward pressure came from costs of transportation (-3.1% year-on-year), housing, water, electricity and gas (-1.4%) and recreation and culture (-0.2%).
At the same time, consumers paid more for restaurants and hotels (+1.0% year-on-year), health (+0.4%), furnishings and household equipment (+0.3%) and clothing and footwear (+0.2%).
Key categories, included in Italys Consumer Price Index, are food and non-alcoholic beverages (accounting for 16% of total weight), transport (15%), restaurants and hotels (11%) and housing, water, electricity and other fuels (10%). Other categories are clothing and footwear (9%), furnishing and household equipment (8%), recreation and culture (8%) and health (also 8%). Communication, education, alcoholic beverages, tobacco and other goods and services comprise the remaining 15% of the index.
The nations final annualized CPI, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably increased 0.1% in February, according to market expectations. If so, this would match the preliminary HICP estimate, reported on February 27th. In January the final annualized HICP dropped at a pace of 0.5%, down from a 0.4% drop, as pointed by the provisional estimate. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is to release the official CPI report at 9:00 GMT.
Canada
Change in Employment, Unemployment Rate
The number of the employed people in Canada probably decreased by 5 000 in February, according to market expectations. In January the number of the employed rose by 35 400, or the most since October 2014, when a number of 43 100 was reported. Part-time employment rose by 47 000 in January compared to December, while full-time employment was little changed during the period. There was little employment change in January for men and women aged between 25 and 54, while their unemployment rates remained at 5.6% and 5.3%, respectively. Employment among men and women aged between 15 and 24 was unchanged in January, while their unemployment rate went down 0.7 percentage points to 12.8%, with fewer youths searching for a job, according to the report by the Statistics Canada. Creation of new job positions is considered of utmost importance for consumer spending. In case employment in the country decreased at a faster pace than expected, this would have a bearish effect on the Canadian dollar.
Meanwhile, the rate of unemployment in the country probably rose to 6.7% in February from 6.6% in January. A higher-than-expected rate of increase would have a bearish effect on the local currency. Statistics Canada is expected to release its official employment report at 12:30 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.3462. In case EUR/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.3533, it will probably continue up to test 1.3574. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.3645.
If EUR/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.3421, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.3350. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.3309.
The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.3330, M2 – 1.3386, M3 – 1.3442, M4 – 1.3498, M5 – 1.3554, M6 – 1.3610.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.3800. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.3982, R2 – 1.4277, R3 – 1.4459. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.3505, S2 – 1.3323, S3 – 1.3028.
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