Yesterdays trade saw EUR/GBP within the range of 0.7340-0.7388. The daily high has also been the highest level since February 23rd, when a high of 0.7409 was recorded. The pair closed at 0.7373, rising 0.22% on a daily basis and marking a fourth straight daily gain.
At 7:44 GMT today EUR/GBP was up 0.02% for the day to trade at 0.7373. The pair breached the first key weekly resistance and touched a daily high at 0.7384 at 6:48 GMT.
Fundamentals
Euro Area
Private loans
Lending to individuals and business entities in the Euro areas private sector probably expanded for the first time in the past 32 months, rising at an annualized rate of 0.1% in February, according to market expectations. In January the total value of private sector loans decreased 0.1% year-on-year. In case lending expanded at a faster pace than anticipated, this would support demand for the euro, as it implies higher economic activity in the future in terms of consumer spending and business investments. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to release the official data at 9:00 GMT.
United Kingdom
Retail sales
Annualized retail sales in the United Kingdom probably rose at a rate of 4.7% in February, according to the median forecast by experts, after in January sales increased at another 5.4%. If so, this would be the 23rd consecutive month of sales growth. In monthly terms, retail sales probably increased 0.4% during February, which would neutralize the 0.3% dip recorded in January. Annualized retail sales, without taking into account fuel sales, probably rose 4.2% in February, following a 4.8% surge in January. If so, this would be the 34th consecutive month of growth in annual core sales.
This is a short-term indicator, which provides key information about consumption on a national scale. Higher retail sales suggest stronger consumer demand, confidence and economic growth, respectively. However, in case the index of retail sales increased at a slower-than-projected pace, this would be a bearish impulse for the pound. The Office for National Statistics is expected to publish the official report at 9:30 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7367. In case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7394, it will probably continue up to test 0.7415. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7442.
If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7346, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7319. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7298.
The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 0.7309, M2 – 0.7333, M3 – 0.7357, M4 – 0.7381, M5 – 0.7405, M6 – 0.7429.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.7208. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.7327, R2 – 0.7415, R3 – 0.7534. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.7120, S2 – 0.7001, S3 – 0.6913.
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