Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 61.800-63.620. The pair closed at 61.853, plummeting 2.26% on a daily basis, while marking a third straight trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since August 3rd, when the cross registered a low of 61.290.

At 7:12 GMT today USD/RUB was losing 0.64% for the day to trade at 62.360. The pair touched a daily low at 62.217 at 7:04 GMT.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on October 2nd, probably decreased to 274 000, according to market expectations, from 277 000 in the previous week. The latter has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on August 28th.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 270 750, marking a decrease of 1 000 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.

The business week, which ended on September 25th has been the 30th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or dropped further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably rose to the seasonally adjusted 2 205 000 during the business week ended on September 25th, from 2 191 000 in the prior week. The latter has been the lowest level for insured unemployment since November 11th 2000, when 2 161 000 claims were reported. The figure represented a drop by 53 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on September 11th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

FOMC Minutes

At 18:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on September 16th-17th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

As the Federal Reserve abstained from introducing a rate hike in September, and after the downbeat report on Non-farm Payrolls last Friday, expectations of a rate raise by the end of the year have been somewhat curbed.

However, in a statement at the University of Massachusetts Fed Chair Janet Yellen noted that an initial increase in the target range for the federal funds rate later in 2015 would still be appropriate. ”If the FOMC were to delay the start of the policy normalization process for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals. Such an abrupt tightening would risk disrupting financial markets and perhaps even inadvertently push the economy into recession. In addition, continuing to hold short-term interest rates near zero well after real activity has returned to normal and headwinds have faded could encourage excessive leverage and other forms of inappropriate risk-taking that might undermine financial stability. For these reasons, the more prudent strategy is to begin tightening in a timely fashion and at a gradual pace, adjusting policy as needed in light of incoming data”, Yellen said.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

R1 – 62.020
R2 – 62.187
R3 (range resistance) – 62.354
R4 (range breakout) – 62.854

S1 – 61.686
S2 – 61.519
S3 (range support) – 61.353
S4 (range breakout) – 60.852

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/RUB are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 65.841
R1 – 66.963
R2 – 67.815
R3 – 68.937

S1 – 64.989
S2 – 63.867
S3 – 63.015