Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.5112-1.5226. The pair closed at 1.5212, soaring 0.63% on a daily basis, or at the sharpest rate since October 30th, when it rose 0.77%, while marking its third consecutive trading day of gains. The daily high was a higher-high test of the high from November 6th and also the highest level since November 5th, when the pair went up as high as 1.5402.
At 8:11 GMT today GBP/USD was losing 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.5196. The pair touched a daily low at 1.5191 at 8:13 GMT, which was an exact test of the daily S2 level.
Today GBP/USD trading may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on November 6th, probably decreased to 270 000, according to market expectations, from 276 000 in the previous week. It has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on September 25th, when a level of 277 000 was reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 262 250, marking an increase of 3 500 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.
The business week, which ended on October 30th has been the 35th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 160 000 during the business week ended on October 30th from 2 163 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 17 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on October 16th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably remained unchanged at 5.370 million in September from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. It has been the lowest figure since June, when 5.249 million job openings were reported. This indicator refers to all positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 15:00 GMT.
Monthly Budget Statement
The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of USD 130.0 billion in October, according to market expectations, after a surplus of USD 91.0 billion during the previous month. The latter represented a 14.15% decrease compared to the figure posted in September a year ago.
In September total receipts were at USD 365 billion (a 4% year-on-year increase), while total outlays amounted to USD 274 billion (a 12% year-on-year surge), according to the report by the US Treasury. The budget deficit for the fiscal 2015 was registered at USD 439 billion, which has been the lowest gap since 2007 and also lower than the average of the past 40 years.
A larger-than-projected budget deficit in October would have a moderate bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service is to publish the official figure at 19:00 GMT.
Fed Speakers
At 14:30 GMT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to take a statement, which will be followed by speeches offered by a number of Fed officials.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on UK 2-year government bonds went as high as 0.733% on November 11th, or the highest level since November 9th (0.770%), after which it closed at 0.731% to add 3.1 basis points (0.031 percentage point) compared to November 10th. It has been the first gain in the past three trading days.
The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.882% on November 11th, after which it closed at 0.878% to add 0.004 percentage point compared to November 10th. It has been the seventh gain in the past eight trading days.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year UK bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, narrowed to 0.147% on November 11th from 0.174% on November 10th. The November 11th yield spread has been the lowest one since November 6th, when the difference was 0.146%.
Meanwhile, the yield on UK 10-year government bonds soared as high as 2.058% on November 11th, or matching the high from the preceding day, after which it slid to 2.054% at the close to add 2.7 basis points (0.027 percentage point) compared to November 10th. It has been the sixth gain in the past eight trading days.
The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.335% on November 11th, after which it slipped to 2.331% at the close to lose 0.005 percentage point compared to November 10th. It has been the second consecutive trading day of decline.
The spread between 10-year US and 10-year UK bond yields narrowed to 0.277% on November 11th from 0.309% on November 10th. The November 11th yield difference has been the lowest one since November 5th, when the spread was 0.264%.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.5212
R2 – 1.5233
R3 (range resistance) – 1.5243
R4 (range breakout) – 1.5275
S1 – 1.5202
S2 – 1.5191
S3 (range support) – 1.5181
S4 (range breakout) – 1.5149
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.5191
R1 – 1.5358
R2 – 1.5667
R3 – 1.5834
S1 – 1.4882
S2 – 1.4715
S3 – 1.4406
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