Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.3228-1.3285. The pair closed at 1.3261, shedding 0.11% on a daily basis, while marking its third straight trading day of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since November 6th, when a low of 1.3153 was registered.
At 9:02 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.05% for the day to trade at 1.3268. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3279 at 8:33 GMT, overshooting the range resistance level (R3). USD/CAD has been trading above the weekly central pivot level for a fourth straight day in a row. The pair has encountered resistance in the 1.3280-1.3295 area in the past couple of days and if a break and close above it occurs, a test of November 9th high at 1.3311 may be at hand.
On Thursday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on November 6th, probably decreased to 270 000, according to market expectations, from 276 000 in the previous week. It has been the highest number of claims since the business week ended on September 25th, when a level of 277 000 was reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 262 250, marking an increase of 3 500 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.
The business week, which ended on October 30th has been the 35th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or decreased further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 160 000 during the business week ended on October 30th from 2 163 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 17 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on October 16th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Job Openings
The number of job openings in the United States probably remained unchanged at 5.370 million in September from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. It has been the lowest figure since June, when 5.249 million job openings were reported. This indicator refers to all positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 15:00 GMT.
Monthly Budget Statement
The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of USD 130.0 billion in October, according to market expectations, after a surplus of USD 91.0 billion during the previous month. The latter represented a 14.15% decrease compared to the figure posted in September a year ago.
In September total receipts were at USD 365 billion (a 4% year-on-year increase), while total outlays amounted to USD 274 billion (a 12% year-on-year surge), according to the report by the US Treasury. The budget deficit for the fiscal 2015 was registered at USD 439 billion, which has been the lowest gap since 2007 and also lower than the average of the past 40 years.
A larger-than-projected budget deficit in October would have a moderate bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service is to publish the official figure at 19:00 GMT.
Fed Speakers
At 14:30 GMT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is to take a statement, which will be followed by speeches offered by a number of Fed officials.
Canada
New Housing Price Index
Selling prices of new homes in Canada probably rose for a sixth straight month in October, up 0.2%, according to market expectations. In September compared to August prices went up 0.3%. Home values climbed at a rate of 1.3% in September compared to the same month a year ago, matching the rates reported in July and August. The New Housing Price Index is a key indicator, reflecting the health of Canadian housing market. In case prices surged more than anticipated, this would be an indication of a strong demand and would, therefore, have a limited bullish effect on the loonie. Statistics Canada will release the official data at 13:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3266
R2 – 1.3271
R3 (range resistance) – 1.3277
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3292
S1 – 1.3256
S2 – 1.3250
S3 (range support) – 1.3245
S4 (range breakout) – 1.3230
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3219
R1 – 1.3405
R2 – 1.3502
R3 – 1.3688
S1 – 1.3122
S2 – 1.2936
S3 – 1.2839
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