Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for November 16th

Written by Miroslav Marinov

Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at TradingPedia, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market, as currently his focus is set on the major currencies of eight developed nations worldwide.

, | Updated: October 30, 2024

Friday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7102-0.7160. The pair closed at 0.7131, ticking up 0.06% on a daily basis, while marking its third consecutive trading day of gains. The daily high has been the highest level since November 6th, when the pair went up as high as 0.7171. In weekly terms, AUD/USD appreciated 1.18%, which has been the first weekly gain in the past five weeks.

On Monday (November 16th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

New Motor Vehicle Sales

At 0:30 GMT on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report on new motor vehicle sales in the country for October. New vehicle registrations rose to 100 372 vehicles in September from 95 101 in August, or a 5.5% increase. Septembers figure has been the highest one on record. New car sales, as an indicator, reflect how strong consumer confidence is. In case consumers are willing to make large-ticket purchases, such as new automobiles, this suggests they have greater confidence regarding their financial prospects. However, as new car sales account for a small portion of the Australian Gross Domestic Product, a potential increase would have a limited bullish effect on the national currency.

United States

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index probably increased for a fourth consecutive month in November to reach a reading of -5.00, according to the median forecast by experts, from -11.36 in the prior month. If so, however, this would be the fourth straight month, when the gauge inhabited negative territory.

The index is based on the monthly Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which is conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. About 200 top manufacturing executives respond to a questionnaire, sent out during the first day of the month. They provide their estimates in regard to the performance of several business indicators from the prior month, while also forecasting performance during the upcoming six months.

Readings below 0.00 are indicative of worsening business conditions in the region. Higher-than-anticipated index values will usually have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to release the official reading at 13:30 GMT.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on November 15th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to EUR/USD (0.8943, or very strong)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.8629, or very strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (0.7423, or strong)
AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.4249, or moderate)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (-0.2572, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.9310, or very strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with USD/CAD.

2. AUD/USD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with EUR/USD and GBP/USD during the week, while moving almost equally in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY.

3. The correlation between AUD/USD and USD/CHF was insignificant during the period in question.