Gold trading outlook: futures advance as Paris terror bolsters safe haven bids

On Friday gold for delivery in December traded within the range of $1,081.30-$1,085.90. Futures closed at $1,080.80, unchanged on a daily basis, following two successive trading days of losses. The daily low has been the lowest level since August 4th, when the yellow metal went down as low as $1,080.50. In weekly terms, gold futures lost 0.80% last week, while marking their fourth consecutive weekly drop.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for delivery in December were gaining 0.93% on Monday to trade at $1,091.00 per troy ounce. The yellow metal went up as high as $1,097.40 earlier today, undershooting the weekly R3 level and overcoming the upper range breakout level (R4). It has been the highest level since November 6th, when the commodity registered a daily high at $1,109.50.

On Monday the precious metal was largely influenced by the late Fridays act of terror in Paris, which led to the death of at least 150 people. As a response, France initiated air strikes in Syria against the organization behind the attacks, Islamic State (ISIS). These events urged market players to cut short their holdings of riskier assets such as stocks and high-yielding currencies and purchase assets with a safe-haven status, including gold.

However, gold futures advance may be capped, as prospects of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December were still persistent. The minutes from FOMCs most recent meeting on policy, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will be this weeks focus, as the document may contain further hawkish-toned indications. Other reports of key importance are the ones on US CPI performance and US industrial production index in October, which are due out on Tuesday.

Technically, gold has overcome the upper boundary of the relatively tight range and as the 4-hour RSI has moved beyond its 50.00 level and is still at a comfortable distance from overbought, while the middle Bollinger band has been penetrated, a break and close above todays high may clear the way for a test of November 6th high ($1,109.50).

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

R1 – $1,081.22
R2 – $1,081.64
R3 (range resistance) – $1,082.07
R4 (range breakout) – $1,083.33

S1 – $1,080.38
S2 – $1,079.96
S3 (range support) – $1,079.54
S4 (range breakout) – $1,078.27

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for gold are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – $1,084.50
R1 – $1,087.70
R2 – $1,094.60
R3 – $1,097.80

S1 – $1,077.60
S2 – $1,074.40
S3 – $1,067.50