Forex Market: NZD/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw NZD/USD within the range of 0.6623-0.6750. The pair closed at 0.6633, plummeting 1.43% on a daily basis, or the most since September 10th, when it depreciated 1.66%. The daily low has been the lowest level since December 3rd, when a low of 0.6605 was registered. NZD/USD went up 3.28% last week, or the most since the week ended on October 11th, when it added 3.83%. The pair has advanced 0.75% so far during the current month.

At 9:22 GMT today NZD/USD was losing 0.12% for the day to trade at 0.6636. The pair touched a daily low at 0.6627 at 5:50 GMT, undershooting the daily S1 level. It was also a higher-low test of the low from Monday. Short-term resistance may be encountered at the hourly 55-day EMA, while a break above it may send the pair up for a test of the high from December 4th (0.6790). The latter also stands in proximity to the 38.20% Fibonacci level (0.6808), which reflects the descent from April 29th high to September 23rd low. Support may be received in the area around the 23.60% Fibonacci level (0.6586).

Today NZD/USD trading may be influenced by the macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Job Openings

The number of job openings in the United States probably dropped to 5.525 million in October from a month ago, according to the median forecast by experts. In September 5.526 million job openings were reported, or the most since July. This indicator refers to all job positions that are open, but not filled on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which gathers data from about 16 400 non-farm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The survey assesses the unmet demand for labor in the labor market. Higher-than-projected number of openings will usually have a limited bullish effect on the US dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is to release the official data at 15:00 GMT.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on December 6th and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

NZD/USD to AUD/USD (0.8897, or very strong)
NZD/USD to EUR/USD (0.7900, or strong)
NZD/USD to GBP/USD (0.5266, or strong)
NZD/USD to USD/CAD (0.1952, or weak)
NZD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.1688, or weak)
NZD/USD to USD/CHF (-0.7633, or strong)

1. During the examined period NZD/USD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with AUD/USD.

2. NZD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with EUR/USD and GBP/USD during the past week, while moving strongly in the opposite direction compared to USD/CHF.

3. The correlation between NZD/USD and USD/CAD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY was insignificant during the period in question.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for NZD/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 0.6645
R2 – 0.6657
R3 (range resistance) – 0.6669
R4 (range breakout) – 0.6703

S1 – 0.6621
S2 – 0.6610
S3 (range support) – 0.6598
S4 (range breakout) – 0.6563

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for NZD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.6684
R1 – 0.6854
R2 – 0.6961
R3 – 0.7131

S1 – 0.6577
S2 – 0.6407
S3 – 0.6300